Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 12 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at -$4.62/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 998 MW — squarely within the overnight trough after peaking near 1220 MW around 18:25-19:00 AEST last evening. The region has spent most of the past six hours in negative territory, with prices ranging from -$8.51/MWh to $10/MWh as demand tracked below 1050 MW, confirming Tasmania's typical low-overnight-demand, negative-price pattern driven by hydro and wind output exceeding underlying load.
The demand-price relationship is pronounced: every push above ~1100 MW during the past 24 hours has coincided with price spikes to $85.20/MWh (the apparent local cap), visible in the 06:15-08:55 AEST morning ramp yesterday and again in the 19:00-21:00 AEST evening peak. Conversely, demand troughs below 900 MW correlate tightly with sub-zero pricing, with the 01:00-05:00 AEST window yesterday showing demand falling from 930 MW to 824 MW alongside prices oscillating between -$8.50/MWh and $6/MWh. This is a low-liquidity, weather-driven market where small MW swings move price disproportionately — a 100 MW shift can flip the region from negative pricing to the $85/MWh cap.
Today's forecast points to a continuation of this pattern with some upward pressure building through the morning. AEMO's forecast trajectory shows prices holding deeply negative (-$15.01/MWh) through the early hours to around 07:00 AEST, before climbing sharply to $27.96/MWh by 07:30 AEST and $65.19/MWh by 09:00 AEST as demand ramps into the morning peak. Prices are then forecast to hold in the $55-66/MWh band through midday and into the afternoon, easing slightly toward $49-57/MWh by 16:00-18:00 AEST. This suggests today's demand curve mirrors yesterday's shape closely, with the steepest price response occurring in the 06:00-09:00 AEST ramp — the highest-risk window for price volatility given the historical sensitivity to load changes in that band.
On the demand-side and operational front, no Tasmania-specific constraints are flagged in current notices — the active interventions (voltage directions, MSL thresholds, negative settlement residues) are all concentrated in SA. However, the Basslink control issue flagged on 11 September (now resolved as of 08:10 AEST) is worth noting for interconnector flow context, since Basslink transfer capability directly affects how much Tasmania's low-cost hydro/wind surplus can be exported to Victoria, influencing local price floors during oversupply periods. Generation mix at the current interval shows hydro at 344 MW, wind at 218 MW and gas OCGT at 125 MW, with renewable penetration at 81.75% and carbon intensity at 0.1186 tCO2/MWh — consistent with the negative pricing being driven by strong hydro/wind output relative to the 998 MW demand level.