Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 11 September 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $89.75/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,112 MW, tracking the tail-end of the overnight peak that ran from roughly 17:00 to 20:00 AEDT (06:00-09:00 UTC on the prior trading day equivalent). Demand has been oscillating between 1,000-1,170 MW through the evening period, and price has followed closely — the $85.20-92.90/MWh band recurs repeatedly whenever demand holds above 1,050 MW, consistent with a supply bid stack that clears at that level once hydro dispatch is fully allocated and the OCGT peaker (125 MW) sets the marginal price.

Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is sharp at the margins. Overnight on 10-11 September, demand fell from 1,224 MW to below 900 MW between 21:30 and 01:00 AEST, and price collapsed from $89-158/MWh down to negative territory (-$15 to -$0.58/MWh) as hydro output exceeded underlying load. Conversely, the evening ramp from 830 MW at 02:00 to 1,150+ MW by 08:00-09:00 AEST pushed price from near-zero back up through the $85-102/MWh range, with a brief $158.29/MWh spike at 21:00 AEST on 10 September when demand hit 1,221 MW. This confirms a fairly tight demand-price coupling once load moves outside the 950-1,050 MW band where hydro comfortably covers the system.

For today, AEMO's forecast curve points to a pronounced trough: forecast RRP falls from $91.56/MWh at 21:00 AEST tonight to negative pricing from 00:00 through 06:00 AEST tomorrow, bottoming near -$41/MWh around 03:00-05:00 AEST as overnight demand drops and hydro/wind output exceeds load. Price then recovers sharply from 07:00 AEST (forecast $22/MWh) into the $85/MWh plateau by 08:00-11:30 AEST as morning demand ramps back above 1,100 MW. A second, shallower trough is forecast for the 13:00-18:00 AEST window, with prices easing to $35-40/MWh at 13:00 before falling further toward zero and negative values by late afternoon, suggesting midday demand softness combined with solar contribution from interconnected regions via Basslink.

Current generation mix is 1,059.6 MW hydro, 124.98 MW gas OCGT, and 31.1 MW wind, giving a renewable share of 89.72% and carbon intensity of 0.0668 tCO2/MWh — among the cleanest intervals of the past 24 hours as hydro dispatch has scaled with demand. No load-shedding or demand-side directions are active in Tasmania; the AEMO intervention notices in this data relate to SA voltage support and NSW-VIC settlement residues, with no TAS1-specific constraints. Identified low-price windows for flexible load sit at 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, with the 04:00-05:00 AEST window offering the steepest saving versus peak at $132.75/MWh, aligning with the demand trough and negative forecast pricing.