Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 14 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $68.31/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 985 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This follows an overnight trough where demand bottomed near 720-780 MW between 05:00-05:45 AEST and prices briefly turned negative, printing as low as -$58.91/MWh at 04:45 AEST as hydro and wind output outstripped load. The current 06:00-06:30 window shows classic morning ramp dynamics — demand up roughly 250 MW from the overnight low, and price responding sharply, jumping from $20.81/MWh at 06:05 to $68.31/MWh by 06:30 as generators move up the stack to meet rising load.
Price sensitivity to demand in Tasmania today is pronounced but not strictly linear. Yesterday evening's data shows demand climbing from 985 MW to a peak near 1120 MW between 20:00-22:15 AEST, with prices spiking intermittently to $90-148/MWh on tight intervals despite hydro and wind covering the bulk of supply. This indicates the region's marginal price-setter — likely gas OCGT or import/export flows via Basslink — is exposed during ramp periods even with strong renewable output. Current generation mix has hydro at 774 MW and wind at 420 MW comfortably covering the 985 MW load, with only 125 MW from gas OCGT, and renewable penetration sits at 90.55%, so today's price volatility is more a function of ramp-rate and marginal unit dispatch than absolute scarcity.
The forecast trajectory points to a firming price profile through the day. AEMO's predispatch forecasts show prices staying soft to negative through the next few hours (-$15 to -$50/MWh range projected out to 05:00 AEST tomorrow reflecting continued overnight low demand), before stepping up sharply from 08:00 AEST tomorrow, with forecast RRP climbing to $35, then $62-75/MWh by mid-morning and peaking near $88/MWh around 13:00-13:30 AEST tomorrow. For today's remaining trading, expect demand to keep building toward a late-morning/midday shoulder near 1050-1060 MW (consistent with yesterday's 07:30-08:30 AEST pattern), with prices likely holding in the $55-70/MWh band absent any supply disruption. The loadWindows data confirms the cheapest demand-shifting opportunities are overnight (00:30-05:30 AEST), with savings up to $136/MWh versus peak — relevant for any flexible load management today given the negative pricing already observed in early morning intervals.
No Tasmania-specific market notices or interventions are active; the AEMO directions and intervention events on the notice board are all confined to South Australia (voltage control issues) and don't affect TAS1 demand-supply balance today.