Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 17 September 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $92.04/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,111 MW, tracking the tail end of this morning's ramp. Demand climbed sharply from an overnight trough of 813 MW around 03:00-03:45 AEST to a peak of 1,254 MW at 09:00 AEST, and price responded in lockstep — troughing at $-8.41/MWh during the 05:00-05:45 AEST low-demand window (when negative pricing persisted for nearly an hour) before surging to a session-high $127.76/MWh at 07:45 AEST as demand crossed 1,150 MW. This morning's data confirms Tasmania's price curve is highly demand-elastic: every 100 MW of load added through the 06:00-09:00 AEST ramp corresponded to roughly $30-50/MWh of price uplift, with the tightest correlation visible between 1,000 MW and 1,250 MW.

Demand has since eased back from the 09:00 AEST peak, sitting in the 900-1,050 MW band through the afternoon and evening, with price compressing accordingly into the $70-110/MWh range. The evening secondary peak is building now, with demand at 1,111 MW and rising into the 20:00-21:00 AEST window — AEMO's forecast curve points to prices holding near $70-77/MWh through 21:00 AEST before collapsing to near-zero and negative territory from 22:00 AEST as demand falls away overnight. The forecast trajectory mirrors last night's pattern closely: expect sub-$1/MWh pricing through the 03:00-05:00 AEST trough tomorrow, with a similarly sharp morning ramp back above $88/MWh by 06:30 AEST.

Hydro is supplying 1,067 MW and wind 434 MW against current demand of 1,111 MW, putting the region at 100% renewable generation and 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity — comfortable headroom given combined output exceeds load, which explains the frequent negative pricing overnight when generation outstrips demand and hydro operators accept negative RRP rather than spill. No Tasmania-specific demand-side notices are active today; the market interventions logged this week relate to SA voltage control and don't affect TAS1 dispatch. Load-shifting opportunities are clearest in the 22:00-05:00 AEST window, where forecast prices sit at $30/MWh or below and briefly turn negative, offering the best economics for flexible load or battery charging ahead of tomorrow's morning ramp.