Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 17 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $88.02/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,173 MW, down from the overnight evening peak of 7,150 MW recorded at 19:00 AEST last night when prices spiked as high as $137.68/MWh. The price-demand relationship through the trading period has been tight: every push above 6,800 MW has coincided with prices holding in the $110-137/MWh band, while troughs below 4,200 MW in the early hours (02:00-05:00 AEST) drove prices negative, bottoming at -$8.01/MWh as wind generation (2,377 MW currently) and minimal overnight load overwhelmed demand.
The demand trajectory today follows a classic shoulder-season shape — overnight minimum around 3,700-4,200 MW between 04:00-05:00 AEST, a sharp morning ramp into the 6,500-7,100 MW range by 08:00-10:00 AEST as heating load and business demand build, then an afternoon easing into a secondary evening peak. This morning's ramp already produced the day's highest prices, with 08:30 AEST hitting $135.61/MWh at 6,981 MW. Given today's forecast top of just 22.1°C and reduced heating demand as the day warms, afternoon demand should soften further, consistent with the current pullback from 7,150 MW to 6,173 MW and prices easing back to $88.02/MWh.
AEMO's five-minute forecast points to a steep price collapse from current levels into negative territory overnight, with forecast RRP falling to -$64.55/MWh by 01:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow as demand drops to typical overnight troughs and wind output remains elevated (renewable penetration is already at 41.12% this interval, up from lows near 15% around midday yesterday). Traders should note the pattern from the prior 24 hours: the $10-30/MWh price collapses during 19:35-20:20 AEST last evening occurred despite demand exceeding 5,500-5,900 MW, indicating strong wind and battery (193 MW) contribution suppressed marginal pricing even during a demand ramp — a dynamic likely to repeat this evening given similar wind conditions forecast. No VIC-specific demand-side interventions are currently active; the SA voltage-related directions and minimum system load notices are region-specific and do not directly constrain Victorian dispatch today.