Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 13 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $50.42/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 5,133 MW and climbing, up from a 5,257 MW morning peak around 07:20-08:35 that pushed prices as high as $65.00/MWh. The region has just moved through the low-demand trough of 12:30-15:00, where demand fell to a daily low of 4,589 MW and prices sagged to $10.65-$15.08/MWh, before the current evening ramp began lifting both demand and price in tandem.
The demand-price relationship today is tight and consistent with typical NEM dynamics: every 300-500 MW swing in demand corresponds to $30-50/MWh of price movement. Overnight demand bottomed near 2,732-3,200 MW between 02:00-03:30 AEST, coinciding with negative prices as low as -$16.54/MWh — a function of oversupply from wind and rooftop solar exports combined with minimal load. As demand built through the morning ramp (3,700 MW at 05:00 to 5,600+ MW by 08:30), prices swung from negative territory to a sequence of $38-65/MWh prints, reflecting the steeper part of the supply stack being dispatched to meet the ramp.
Looking at the trajectory into tonight, demand is still rising (5,133 MW at 20:30 and increasing) and forecast prices confirm a firming evening peak: AEMO's forecast has RRP holding near $54-59/MWh through 21:00-22:30 AEST before easing into single digits overnight from 23:00 onward as demand drops away. Brown coal is currently supplying 3,798 MW (74% of generation) with wind at 936 MW and batteries discharging 1,024 MW to help meet the evening peak — carbon intensity has risen to 0.804 tCO2/MWh as renewable penetration fell to 34% coinciding with this evening ramp, down from over 55% overnight.
No VIC-specific demand-side notices are in play today; the active AEMO notices relate to SA voltage support directions and a forecast minimum system load event in SA on 19 September, not Victoria. The Basslink control issue flagged earlier in the week has been resolved, removing that source of interconnector uncertainty for VIC-TAS flows. Tomorrow's forecast (14 September) shows a much sharper price spike expected during the 07:00-13:30 window, with forecast RRP reaching $88-90/MWh, suggesting the morning ramp could be materially tighter than today's.