Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 11 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $95.35/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,270 MW, having pulled back from the overnight evening peak of 6,840 MW (21:25 AEST) that drove prices to $174.43/MWh. That peak-to-current demand drop of roughly 1,570 MW illustrates the region's steep price-demand curve: every 300-400 MW of demand swing near the evening peak moved prices by $50-80/MWh, while the same demand movement in the overnight trough (3,300-3,900 MW between 01:00-05:00 AEST) kept prices pinned between -$40 and $10/MWh. Brown coal is currently supplying 3,835 MW of Victoria's generation mix, with wind contributing 697 MW, underscoring how thin the operating margin is once demand climbs past 6,000 MW and additional gas peaking capacity gets dispatched.
The forecast trajectory points to a sharp price collapse through the middle of the day. AEMO's dispatch forecasts show prices holding near $86-96/MWh through 07:30 AEST before cratering to $10.65/MWh by 08:00 AEST and turning negative (-$40.58/MWh) by 13:00 AEST, consistent with the typical solar-driven midday demand and price suppression pattern. Prices are then forecast to recover into the $80-93/MWh band from 18:00-21:30 AEST as rooftop solar output fades and evening demand rebuilds, before falling into negative territory again overnight from 00:00-08:00 AEST tomorrow (as low as -$39.83/MWh at 05:00 AEST). This bimodal pattern — negative pricing overnight and midday, sharp peaks morning and evening — reflects the underlying demand shape rather than any single fuel constraint.
Today's peak demand risk sits in the 07:00-09:00 AEST morning ramp and 17:00-21:00 AEST evening peak windows, where yesterday's data shows prices spiking to $174.43/MWh on relatively modest demand increases of 60-100 MW within a five-minute interval — evidence of tight marginal supply at those hours. Weather conditions today (7-21°C range, minimal wind potential at 2.2%, moderate solar potential of 6%) suggest limited renewable offset for the morning peak, reinforcing reliance on thermal and gas peaking plant during that window. No demand-side notices affect Victoria directly, though the active non-credible contingency reclassification on the South Morang-Dederang line was cancelled as of 15:00 AEST yesterday, removing a potential constraint on interconnector flows that traders should note is no longer in effect. The five identified low-price load-shifting windows, all overnight between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow morning, offer the clearest arbitrage opportunity, with savings of $108-136/MWh versus the evening peak.