Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 10 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $100.50/MWh as at 6:30am AEST, with demand at 6,281 MW — up from the overnight trough of 3,619 MW recorded around 3:35pm on the prior day's low-demand window. The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours is stark: as demand fell below 4,000 MW overnight, prices collapsed into negative territory (-$8.01/MWh at 3:25am), while the current demand recovery through the morning ramp has pushed prices back above $100/MWh. This morning's ramp saw demand climb from 4,661 MW at 6:00am to over 7,000 MW by 8:35am, dragging prices from $10.65/MWh to a peak of $113.16/MWh in the space of three hours — a clear demonstration of Victoria's steep supply curve at these demand levels.
Demand is on a firming trajectory this morning, consistent with cold conditions (7.4°C, 100% cloud cover, heating demand index of 10.6). Solar potential is negligible today (18.4% average, well below typical spring output) due to persistent cloud, meaning the grid leans more heavily on brown coal (4,144 MW) and battery output (673 MW) to cover the gap left by wind (582 MW) and near-zero solar (1.9 MW) generation. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.935 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 23.4%, down from over 39% during the overnight trough.
AEMO's forward price curve points to a demand-driven price profile through the day: forecast prices ease to $79-91/MWh through the evening peak commencing 7:00am-10:00pm, before climbing again into tomorrow's morning peak, with forecast prices reaching $108-112/MWh between 8:00am and 11:30am tomorrow — signalling traders should expect similar demand-price coupling to repeat. Today's price trajectory should track the demand curve closely: expect prices to hold in the $80-110/MWh band through the business day as demand plateaus near 6,500-7,000 MW, before easing into the evening as demand tapers post-6pm.
On the demand-side and network front, negative settlement residue constraints on both the NSW-VIC and VIC-SA interconnectors were active through yesterday's trading (cycling on/off multiple times), reflecting periods of extreme price divergence across regional boundaries — a factor traders should monitor given its implications for interconnector flow economics today. No new reserve or intervention notices are currently active for VIC, though last week's LOR1 declaration (7-7:30am, 8 September) is a reminder that morning ramp periods remain the tightest reserve margin window in this region.