Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 9 September 2026
Victoria spot price sits at $104.30/MWh at 20:30 AEST, tracking a steep evening ramp as demand climbs through 6,220 MW, up from 5,358 MW just an hour earlier at 19:30. The price has risen in near lockstep with demand across the evening peak build — from $70-80/MWh in the 5,000-5,500 MW band through late afternoon to over $100/MWh as demand pushes past 6,200 MW. This confirms Victoria's price curve is highly demand-sensitive in the current 5,000-7,500 MW range, with each ~500 MW increment adding roughly $10-20/MWh to spot price once above 5,500 MW.
The AEMO forecast points to continued volatility overnight before a sharp morning reversal. Prices are forecast to peak at $122.35/MWh around 21:30 AEST tonight before collapsing through negative territory from approximately 01:00 to 06:00 AEST, bottoming near -$8/MWh as overnight demand falls toward 4,000 MW and minimal-cost baseload plus any residual wind generation oversupplies the market. This mirrors last night's pattern precisely, where demand troughed at 3,857 MW around 02:30 AEST with prices at -$16.54/MWh.
The bigger signal for today is the morning ramp: forecast RRP jumps from -$5/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $48.84/MWh by 07:00 and $109.99/MWh by 08:30 AEST as demand rebuilds sharply on the back of low overnight wind (current wind potential just 1%) and heating demand (9.1 out of 10 on the heating index, with temperature at 8.9°C). Forecast prices stay elevated near $110-116/MWh through the 09:00-11:30 AEST window, the sharpest sustained peak of the day, before easing to $77-87/MWh through the afternoon and evening. Current generation mix shows brown coal at 3,897 MW carrying the bulk of load, with wind contributing only 994 MW and battery output at 314 MW — renewable penetration has fallen to 23.45% as carbon intensity climbs to 0.894 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the low-wind conditions driving today's price shape. No VIC-specific demand-side notices are currently active (last week's LOR1 forecast from 7 September was cancelled), though a Dederang-South Morang 330kV line outage completed yesterday afternoon, restoring full transfer capacity into the evening peak.