Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 6 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $45.38/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,451 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of 3,661 MW recorded around 13:00 AEST yesterday. That roughly 49% demand swing between overnight minimum and current levels illustrates the region's steep price-demand curve: as load climbed through the 4,000-4,500 MW band overnight, prices held in single digits to low $20s/MWh, but once demand pushed past 5,500 MW into the 07:00-11:00 AEST window yesterday, prices spiked into the $90-110/MWh range for a sustained four-hour period, peaking at $110.50/MWh as demand touched 6,378 MW just before 09:00 AEST.
The forecast trajectory points to a repeat pattern today. AEMO's price forecasts show overnight prices collapsing toward zero and even slightly negative (-$4.24/MWh forecast for 04:00 AEST target), consistent with minimum demand conditions and wind generation currently contributing 2,142 MW against a system that's 43.1% renewable-sourced right now. From there, forecast prices ramp aggressively: $64/MWh by 07:00 AEST, breaking $96/MWh by 08:00 AEST, and holding above $100/MWh through the 09:00-13:00 AEST window with a peak forecast of $110.50/MWh at 09:30 AEST. This mirrors yesterday's actual outcome almost exactly, where the morning demand ramp from 4,500 MW to 6,300+ MW drove sustained triple-digit pricing for roughly five hours.
Today's weather outlook reinforces the demand-side risk profile: cool conditions (10.6-13.3°C) with 78% average cloud cover and only 3.7% average solar potential will constrain rooftop and grid-scale solar contribution during the midday period, a factor that likely contributed to yesterday's price strength persisting into early afternoon (still $90-106/MWh at midday and 13:00 AEST) rather than easing as solar typically flattens the curve. Brown coal generation at 3,288 MW currently forms the largest single component of the mix, with battery storage contributing 313 MW at this interval — a resource traders should watch closely given its role smoothing the evening demand ramp, where forecast prices show a secondary but smaller peak near $61.81/MWh at 22:00 AEST target time.
No load-shedding directions, non-conformance declarations, or intervention events are currently active in VIC1 that would materially constrain supply-side response today. The two non-conformance notices affecting CROWLWF1 (22 MW, wind) concluded at 06:45 AEST yesterday, removing that supply-side friction ahead of this morning's ramp. Given the tight correlation between yesterday's demand-price relationship and today's forecast shape, expect the first genuine test of the day's price ceiling as demand crosses the 5,800-6,000 MW mark, likely between 07:30 and 08:00 AEST.