Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 3 September 2026
Victoria spot price sits at $252.65/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,101 MW and climbing into the morning peak. This follows a sharp overnight-to-morning price escalation: the 20:00-20:30 AEST window saw prices lift from $155.48 to $252.65/MWh as demand rose from 5,695 MW to 6,101 MW, confirming the tight coupling between load growth and price response once demand pushes above the 6,000 MW mark. Overnight troughs told the same story in reverse — demand below 4,000 MW between 04:00-05:00 AEST coincided with negative pricing down to -$12.43/MWh, as low-cost brown coal baseload and wind output exceeded underlying demand.
The demand trajectory through yesterday's trading day shows a clear morning ramp pattern that's repeating: overnight lows near 3,850-4,000 MW gave way to a rapid climb through the 06:00-09:00 AEST period, hitting 6,997 MW by 08:40 AEST with prices holding in the $110-145/MWh range. A second demand peak built through the evening, topping out near 6,101 MW at the current interval with prices now above $250/MWh — the highest print in the dataset. Cold morning conditions (7.4°C, heating demand index 10.6) are supporting this load profile, with minimal solar contribution (0.05 MW) leaving the grid reliant on brown coal (3,531 MW) and wind (1,138 MW) to meet the ramp.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a sharp price pullback through today's session: the 21:00-22:30 AEST window is expected to ease from $225.89/MWh to $85.19/MWh, then collapse into negative territory ($-5 to -$8/MWh) from 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow as demand falls back toward overnight lows. Daytime forecasts for today show prices staying low ($10-38/MWh) through the 07:00-13:00 AEST window before a further dip to slightly negative levels in the afternoon, consistent with moderate wind potential (8.9%) and improving cloud cover easing demand-side pressure. Traders should note the VIC-SA interconnector's negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_VIC1_SA1) remains a live factor shaping regional price divergence during these low-demand troughs.
The generation mix data shows carbon intensity climbing alongside price and demand — from 0.556 tCO2/MWh at 21:00 AEST yesterday to 0.909 tCO2/MWh now, with renewable penetration falling from 53.7% to 24.5% over the same window. This inverse relationship between demand/price and renewable share is a key driver of today's carbon profile: as wind and rooftop solar contribution thins during the morning ramp, brown coal fills the gap, and price signals reflect the increasing reliance on thermal generation to meet peak load.