Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 31 August 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $35.78/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing to 5,706 MW as the morning ramp gets underway — up sharply from the overnight trough of roughly 3,590 MW recorded near 04:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours has been textbook: prices collapsed to near-zero and even negative (as low as -$3.64/MWh) through the 13:00-18:00 AEST overnight low-demand window when demand bottomed around 3,600-3,700 MW, then spiked to $124.92/MWh once demand pushed through 6,300 MW during yesterday's morning peak around 07:30 AEST. That peak coincided with wind generation easing and brown coal holding a steady baseload, leaving thinner reserve margins as demand climbed.

This morning's trajectory points to a repeat pattern. Demand is rebuilding from the 03:00-05:00 AEST trough and is on track to approach 6,700-7,000 MW through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window, based on yesterday's comparable ramp. Given current wind output at 3,254 MW and brown coal at 3,006 MW comfortably covering the 5,706 MW draw, near-term pricing should hold in the $30-50/MWh band rather than repeating the $110+/MWh spikes seen yesterday morning — provided wind generation, currently supported by 17.2 km/h winds, doesn't drop away. AEMO's own dispatch forecasts back this: the 08:00 AEST target shows $43.33/MWh, easing to the $20-38/MWh range through mid-morning as demand plateaus.

The demand forecast for the rest of the day is decidedly mild. AEMO's forward curve shows prices falling into negative territory from 10:00 AEST through to late afternoon (-$39 to -$41/MWh around 12:00-13:00 AEST), consistent with the seasonal minimum-load pattern already flagged for SA and likely mirrored in Victoria given today's cool 11.7°C conditions and low cooling demand. This softens the case for material midday price risk. The next price-relevant demand peak is the evening ramp from 15:00 AEST, where forecast RRP jumps to $59.75/MWh at 15:00 AEST before easing back — a signal that traders should watch the 14:00-16:00 AEST window as the key volatility point today, driven by solar tapering off (average solar potential only 15.5% today per the daily outlook) as households and commercial load return ahead of evening peak. No demand-side market notices specific to Victoria are active today; the relevant interventions and MSL advisories in the notices log pertain to SA and QLD, with no VIC-specific constraints currently in force.