Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 28 August 2026
Victoria spot price sits at $114.80/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,359 MW — well down from the 7,500 MW peak recorded around 18:25 AEST yesterday evening. That evening peak drove prices as high as $141/MWh, confirming the tight coupling between demand and price in the current supply stack: every 1,000 MW of demand growth through yesterday's ramp (from ~6,000 MW at 06:00 to 7,450 MW at 18:00) pushed prices from the $19-45/MWh overnight trough up through the $100-140/MWh band.
Today's price forecast trajectory points to a sharp pullback overnight before a moderate morning build. AEMO's forecasts show prices falling toward $10.50/MWh by 23:00-00:00 AEST tonight and turning negative (down to -$7/MWh) between 00:30 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, consistent with low overnight demand and minimal offsetting load. From 07:00 AEST prices are forecast to recover quickly — $25/MWh at 07:00, $101/MWh by 08:00, and peaking near $125/MWh at 10:30 AEST — tracking the expected demand ramp as the working day begins. A secondary afternoon easing is forecast, with prices drifting back to $69-93/MWh through the 14:00-18:00 AEST window as demand tapers from its daytime plateau.
Current generation supply is dominated by brown coal at 4,340 MW (81% of the 5,264 MW mix), with wind contributing 517 MW, battery discharge 338 MW, and hydro 51 MW; solar is at zero given the pre-dawn hour and 92% cloud cover. Renewable penetration sits at 17.2%, well below the 30-38% seen overnight when wind ran stronger relative to lower demand. Weather data shows today's solar potential is capped at 6.1% average (high cloud, 62% average cover), limiting midday renewable offset to demand and reinforcing the market's reliance on thermal and battery dispatch to meet the morning and early-evening demand peaks. No VIC-specific demand-side constraints or intervention notices are active; the only regional item is a resolved contingency reclassification on the Eildon-Mt Beauty lines, with no bearing on today's demand-price dynamic.