Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $109.48/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand climbing to 6,037 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of 4,631 MW recorded around 04:00 AEST. This morning ramp mirrors the classic weekday demand curve — demand troughed near 5am-6am local time and is now accelerating into the 7-9am peak, and price is tracking that climb closely. Half-hourly data show the sensitivity clearly: every ~300-400 MW step up in demand through the 06:00-08:00 window has pushed prices from the $90-100/MWh band toward spikes above $150-160/MWh, with one interval hitting $163.24/MWh at 07:15 as demand pushed through 6,770 MW.
The forecast trajectory today is materially more aggressive than yesterday's pattern. AEMO's forward curve shows prices holding in the $100-130/MWh range through the early morning ramp, but then escalating sharply from mid-morning: forecast RRP jumps to $170/MWh by 08:00, then to $278-353/MWh across the 08:30-13:00 window, with a peak forecast of $352.24/MWh at 12:30 AEST. This is a atypical outcome for a Victorian midday period, where solar generation normally suppresses prices — current generation mix shows solar at 0 MW (pre-dawn), with brown coal (4,258 MW) and wind (1,221 MW) carrying the load, plus batteries contributing 621 MW. Given today's cloud cover forecast (52% average) and modest solar potential (15%), the midday solar offset that typically caps prices may be weaker than usual, reinforcing the elevated forecast.
Demand-side risk factors are limited today but present: an active credible contingency reclassification remains in force on the Eildon PS-Mt Beauty 220kV lines due to lightning risk, which could constrain network flexibility if weather deteriorates. No load-shedding or non-conformance notices directly affect VIC1 demand today. Prices are expected to ease into the afternoon (forecast back to $112-131/MWh by 14:00-17:30) before a second evening peak lifts prices to $155-157/MWh around 16:00-16:30 as demand rebuilds ahead of the evening residential ramp — consistent with the pattern seen yesterday when demand peaked near 7,375 MW at 08:20 AEST and prices responded with $150-160/MWh spikes. Traders should treat the 08:30-13:00 window as the key risk period today, with forecast prices 2.5-3x current levels on relatively modest incremental demand growth.