Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 22 August 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $115/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,372 MW and climbing through the evening peak. This follows a textbook demand-price relationship through the day: overnight demand troughed near 3,730 MW around 03:40-03:45 AEST, coinciding with negative prices as low as -$7.51/MWh, before the morning ramp pushed demand to a daily high of 6,755 MW at 08:20 AEST. Price responded sharply — jumping from single digits overnight to a peak of $170/MWh at 10:00 AEST as demand held above 6,500 MW through the late-morning block.

The demand-price sensitivity is pronounced above the 6,000 MW threshold. Between 07:00 and 15:30 AEST, demand stayed elevated in the 5,800-6,750 MW range and prices held firm between $95-170/MWh, with the tightest coupling visible where 50 MW demand swings produced $10-20/MWh price moves. As demand eased back below 5,500 MW from mid-afternoon, prices softened proportionally, settling into the $95-125/MWh band through the evening. Renewable output is thin today — wind is contributing just 122 MW and solar has dropped to zero for the evening, leaving brown coal (3,856 MW) carrying the bulk of supply, with gas OCGT (135 MW) and battery (94 MW) providing peaking support. Carbon intensity has risen to 1.09 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 9.5%, reflecting the low-wind, sun-down conditions.

AEMO's forecast curve points to continued price strength into the evening peak, with the 21:00 AEST interval expected near $102/MWh before easing to $83/MWh by 21:30 and dropping toward $10.50/MWh by 23:00 as demand tapers into the overnight trough. The forecast reprises tonight's pattern into tomorrow: prices are expected to fall to negative territory ($-6.50/MWh) around 03:00 AEST on 23 August before the next morning ramp lifts prices back to $80-95/MWh by 07:30-08:30 AEST. No VIC-specific demand-side interventions are active today — the current AEMO notices concern SA voltage support and TAS1 network contingencies, with no directions issued against Victorian participants. Weather offers limited upside for tomorrow's renewable output, with solar potential modest at 8.9% and wind potential minimal at 1%, suggesting Sunday's low-renewable, coal-and-gas-led supply pattern is likely to persist through the coming trading day.