Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 23 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $41.22/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 5,866 MW, down from an overnight evening peak of 6,830 MW at 08:25 AEST (18:25 local) that pushed prices to $93.70/MWh. The data shows tight price-demand coupling through the day: as demand climbed from an early morning trough of 3,364 MW (around 11:05 AEST) to the 6,800 MW-plus afternoon peak, prices rose in lockstep from negative territory (-$8.84/MWh) to the high $80s/$90s. Overnight minimum demand periods saw prices turn negative for an extended stretch between roughly 10:15 AEST and 15:00 AEST, with wind generation at 2,525 MW providing more than half of underlying supply and brown coal running steady at 4,201 MW.
The demand trajectory today follows a typical winter double-peak shape. Morning demand is building again now, having bottomed near 4,151 MW around 10:00 AEST overnight equivalent, and AEMO's forecast points to a firmer evening peak: forecast prices climb sharply from $25.38/MWh at 16:00 AEST to $66.90/MWh by 16:30 AEST, then $78.85/MWh at 17:00 AEST, cresting at $105.89/MWh around 18:30 AEST. This morning shoulder-period ramp mirrors yesterday's pattern, where the 06:00-09:00 AEST window saw demand jump 2,300 MW in three hours, dragging price up nearly $80/MWh over the same period — underscoring how sensitive VIC1 pricing is to ramp rate rather than absolute demand level.
Weather is reinforcing the demand curve: today's forecast max of 16.9°C with 95% average cloud cover and near-zero solar potential (0.7%) limits rooftop PV offset during the day, meaning grid-supplied generation carries more of the midday load than on clearer days. Wind potential is also modest at 2.9%, a step down from the 40%+ renewable penetration seen intermittently overnight. Combined with brown coal holding a stable baseload role, this points to gas and battery dispatch needing to fill any shortfall during the forecast evening peak — a risk factor for prices testing the $100/MWh-plus band flagged in AEMO's afternoon forecast.
On the notices front, there's no VIC1-specific demand-side event today — active market interventions and directions are concentrated in SA (voltage control directions to AGL's Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units) and a non-conformance flag on NUMURSF1 (a VIC solar farm) for a single hour yesterday. None of these materially affect VIC1 demand forecasting, but the SA voltage constraints are worth monitoring given historical spillover risk to VIC1-NSW1 and VIC1-SA interconnector flows during tight periods.