Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 20 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $55.52/MWh at 6:30am AEST with demand at 6,366 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This follows an overnight trough where demand bottomed near 4,700-4,950 MW between 3:00-4:30am, dragging prices as low as $0-11/MWh. The current 30-minute window shows demand up over 1,400 MW from that low point, and price has responded accordingly, lifting from single digits to the mid-$50s as the market clears tighter capacity margins into the morning peak.
Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced today. Overnight data shows a clear pattern: every 200-300 MW of demand movement shifts price by $10-30/MWh in the $4,700-6,700 MW band, but the relationship steepens sharply above 6,900 MW. Last evening's peak around 7,000-7,300 MW between 9:00-11:00am AEST saw prices sustain in the $75-95/MWh range, with the AEMO forecast anticipating a similar pattern today — forecast RRP climbs to $76.62/MWh by 8:00am and peaks near $81.33/MWh around 9:30am as demand is expected to track toward the 7,000-7,300 MW band seen yesterday at the same time. Brown coal is currently supplying 4,443 MW (70% of total generation) with wind contributing 1,942 MW, meaning the morning ramp is being met predominantly by thermal generation with wind support, and any unexpected wind drop-off during the demand build could push prices higher than the forecast trajectory suggests.
Today's demand shape points to a moderate, cool-weather profile rather than a high-stress day. Current temperature is 8.3°C with heating demand at 9.7 (on the reported scale) and cooling demand at zero, consistent with winter morning/evening peaks rather than aircon-driven afternoon spikes. The forecast curve shows demand easing through midday and afternoon, with forecast prices falling to $10.50-19.18/MWh across the 1:00pm-2:30pm window as milder temperatures and moderate solar potential (2.9 avg today) reduce net load. A second, smaller evening ramp is expected after 6:00pm, with forecast RRP recovering to $53.88/MWh by 6:30am tomorrow's equivalent slot — but nothing in the daily outlook points to demand exceeding yesterday's evening peak, when prices spiked to $301-406/MWh between 9:00-9:45pm as demand held above 6,600 MW into the high-price window.
On the network side, the active constraint from the Hazelwood PS bus tie outage (invoked 11:00am yesterday, still current) is limiting Victoria-NSW and Victoria-SA transfer capability, which reduces Victoria's ability to export or import during demand swings and can amplify local price volatility if internal generation is tight during the midday and evening ramps. No load-shedding or reserve notices are active for Victoria today, and the reclassified contingency risk from lightning near the Eildon-Mt Beauty lines was cancelled early yesterday morning, removing that constraint from today's network risk profile.