Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 21 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $12.50/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 5,054 MW, up from an overnight low near 4,552 MW around 04:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship over the past 24 hours is stark: demand above 7,000 MW during yesterday evening's peak (18:00-19:00 AEST equivalent) pushed prices into the $70-79/MWh range, while the overnight demand trough below 4,700 MW saw prices collapse to near zero and briefly negative (-$0.05/MWh at 14:00 AEST yesterday). This confirms VIC1 pricing is highly demand-elastic in the current supply stack, with wind at 3,048 MW and brown coal at 3,316 MW comfortably covering the overnight/early morning load of ~5,000 MW.
The forecast trajectory today points to a sharp reversal. AEMO's price forecasts show a steep ramp from $10.50/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $123/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then a further surge to $257-281/MWh across the midday window (12:00-13:30 AEST). This midday spike is unusual for VIC1 and signals either a significant demand ramp not yet reflected in the trailing actuals, a supply-side tightening (plant outage or reduced renewable output), or interconnector constraints — worth flagging given the active TAS1 lightning contingency reclassification on the Tungatinah-Waddamana lines, which could affect Basslink flow patterns and NEM-wide dispatch. Prices are forecast to ease through the afternoon, settling near $94-100/MWh by 18:00 AEST.
Today's weather outlook reinforces the risk: solar potential is negligible (1.8 average, 82% cloud cover), and wind potential is weak at 1.9, meaning renewable output will be limited relative to yesterday's ~49% renewable share at 20:30 AEST. With minimal solar offset expected through the midday period, VIC1 will lean more heavily on brown coal and gas dispatch to meet the forecast demand ramp, which is consistent with the forecast price spike coinciding with the traditional low-solar midday window. Traders should treat the $250+/MWh forecast interval as the key risk window for today, with the current $12.50/MWh print offering little indication of the volatility ahead.