Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 24 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $100.38/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,068 MW and climbing — this is the tail end of the morning ramp, and the price trajectory over the past two hours shows just how tightly coupled price and demand are right now. Demand rose from 5,613 MW at 06:00 to 6,743 MW by 07:25, and price responded almost lockstep, spiking from $135/MWh to a peak of $140.66/MWh at 07:40 as demand pushed through 6,900 MW. The correlation is stark: every 500 MW of demand growth through the morning ramp has added roughly $20-40/MWh to spot price, reflecting thinning supply headroom as brown coal (4,307 MW) and gas peakers (OCGT at 321 MW) pick up the slack from near-zero solar overnight.
Demand is forecast to build further this morning, with AEMO's dispatch curve pointing to a mid-morning peak near 7,200 MW around 08:00-08:30 AEST, consistent with the pattern already visible in the last 24 hours where demand topped out at 7,203 MW at 08:15 yesterday, driving prices to $130.40/MWh. Forecast RRP for the evening peak (22:00-23:00 AEST) jumps sharply to $211.48/MWh, well above today's morning peak, signalling the market expects tighter conditions at the evening ramp when heating demand combines with the post-solar supply gap — solar output is already at zero and won't materially contribute given today's 100% cloud cover and near-zero wind speed (2.7 km/h).
Price sensitivity is highest during ramp periods (06:00-08:00 AEST and 17:00-20:00 AEST) where demand is moving quickly and the generation stack has to respond with less flexible plant. Overnight low-demand troughs (01:00-04:00 AEST) saw prices fall to single digits ($4-17/MWh) as demand bottomed near 4,500-4,800 MW, reinforcing that VIC1 price formation this week is a direct function of the demand curve rather than any supply-side disruption — there are no active VIC1 market interventions or directions in today's notices, though a non-conformance flag on NUMURSF1 (a semi-scheduled unit) from 23 August has since cleared. Traders should watch the 19:00-22:00 AEST window closely, where forecast pricing implies the sharpest divergence between today's demand trajectory and available capacity.