Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 27 August 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $89.97/MWh at 06:25 AEST as demand climbs through 6,186 MW, tracking the steep morning ramp that has defined the last two hours of trade. Demand bottomed near 3,816 MW around 04:20-04:30 AEST during the overnight trough, when prices briefly touched negative territory (-$1.17/MWh at 05:10) as brown coal baseload outstripped underlying load. Since then, demand has risen over 2,300 MW in under two hours, and price responded with high sensitivity — jumping from single digits to above $140/MWh by 07:00 AEST as the morning ramp forced higher-cost peaking plant into dispatch.
The overnight-to-morning price swing illustrates Victoria's steep supply curve at this time of year: a roughly 60% demand increase (3,816 MW to 6,186 MW) drove prices from near-zero to breach $200/MWh briefly at 12:05 yesterday's equivalent period, and the AEMO forecast curve for today shows a similar pattern building. Forecast RRP climbs from $10.50/MWh in the 00:00-06:00 AEST window to $124/MWh by 08:00 AEST, then to $140/MWh around 09:30 AEST as commercial and industrial load ramps against a cool 8.1°C morning with heating demand at 9.9 (on the reported index) and negligible solar contribution given 0% cloud-adjusted output overnight and low forecast solar potential (2.9 average) for today.
The forecast trajectory points to a secondary price peak in the 09:00-13:30 AEST window, with forecast RRP holding in the $118-146/MWh band through midday before easing to $84-100/MWh by late afternoon and evening. This mirrors yesterday's actual outturn, where demand peaked near 7,496 MW around 21:30 AEST (overnight settlement) and pushed prices to a high of $299/MWh — the sharpest price response of the past 24 hours came on the demand ramp between 6,600 MW and 7,500 MW, not at the absolute peak itself, indicating the region's marginal units are being dispatched aggressively once demand crosses roughly 7,000 MW. With minimum temperatures of 7-8°C forecast through the weekend and only modest wind potential (0.4-0.8 average), expect similar heating-driven morning and evening demand peaks to keep price volatility elevated through midday before easing into the evening trough.
No VIC-specific demand-side notices are active today; the relevant AEMO market notices concern SA region voltage support and minimum system load risk, plus completed NSW network outages, none of which materially affect Victorian demand-supply balance this morning.