Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 2 September 2026

Victoria spot price sits at $10.50/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,707 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 3,800-3,950 MW between 13:15-14:00 AEST (03:15-04:00 local), driving prices into negative territory (-$5.10/MWh) as wind generation of 3,591 MW and minimal underlying load pushed the market into oversupply. That trough has passed — demand has already added roughly 1,900 MW since the 13:00 AEST low, and the price response is sharp: the last hour of data shows demand climbing from 5,244 MW to 5,707 MW while price has been volatile between $10.50 and $22.67/MWh, reflecting the steep part of the supply curve as gas peaking capacity gets called on.

The forecast trajectory today points to a materially tighter market than yesterday's comparable period. AEMO's forward curve shows prices escalating fast through the morning: $81/MWh by 07:00 AEST, breaking above $100/MWh by 08:00 AEST, and spiking to $180/MWh around 09:30-10:00 AEST. The standout is a forecast peak of $202/MWh at 12:00 AEST (10:00 AEST local target), consistent with a midday demand/renewable mismatch rather than the typical evening peak. Prices then ease gradually through the afternoon but stay elevated, holding in the $95-127/MWh band from 13:30 to 17:30 AEST before softening toward $84/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This is a step-change from yesterday's afternoon, when equivalent periods traded at $10-30/MWh — today's curve implies significantly tighter reserve margins or lower renewable output relative to demand across the same window.

Demand's price sensitivity is stark in this market: the data shows swings of 30-50 MW driving $10-20/MWh price moves once demand pushes above 5,500 MW, consistent with thin marginal capacity above that threshold. Brown coal is currently contributing 2,563 MW and wind 3,591 MW to the mix, with solar and battery both at zero ahead of sunrise — solar will need to ramp hard to blunt the forecast morning price spike, and today's weather outlook (56% average cloud cover, only 1.7% average solar potential) suggests limited relief on that front. Wind potential is also weak today (3.1% average), which points to gas and coal carrying more of the midday load than typical, reinforcing the elevated price forecast. No VIC-specific demand-side notices are active; the only relevant network item is the automated constraint set on the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors from 1 September, which remains in force and may limit VIC's ability to import cheaper supply from South Australia during today's peak.

For load-shifting, the data confirms the overnight window (02:00-07:00 AEST) as the only low-price opportunity today, with average prices of -$7.11 to -$2.06/MWh and savings of up to $209/MWh versus the forecast peak — that window has now passed for today's trading, so the next actionable low-price period will be the equivalent trough tonight.