Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 5 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $35.87/MWh at 20:30 AEST, with demand at 4,736 MW — up sharply from the negative-price trough of $-32.21/MWh recorded at 16:35 when demand was still building through the 4,700-4,900 MW band overnight. The evening ramp is the story: demand climbed from 4,187 MW at 17:55 to 4,736 MW by 20:30 as the evening peak sets in, and price responded non-linearly, jumping from single digits ($10-13/MWh) through the 18:00-19:00 window to the $22-36/MWh range by 19:25 onwards. This is a classic evening ramp signature — solar has dropped to zero generation and wind sits at 1,515 MW, leaving brown coal (3,831 MW) and battery discharge (468 MW) to cover the incremental load as the sun sets.
Overnight demand troughed near 3,000-3,300 MW between 03:00-05:00 AEST, coinciding with prices as low as $-17.06/MWh, confirming the tight inverse relationship between low demand and negative pricing when renewable output (wind averaged 50-60% of the mix overnight) exceeds minimum demand requirements. As demand recovered through the morning — crossing 5,000 MW by 06:45 and peaking near 6,251 MW at 08:40 — prices stayed pinned near $0-10/MWh, reflecting ample rooftop and grid-scale solar entering the stack as the day warmed.
The forward curve points to a materially different price regime for the coming day. AEMO's forecast shows prices lifting to $72-100/MWh by 07:00-08:00 AEST tomorrow, then escalating further to a $95-112/MWh band across the 09:00-12:30 window — the sharpest forecast premium of the outlook. This aligns with forecast demand building through the morning peak alongside subdued solar potential (avg. 9.3% tomorrow per the weather outlook, cloud cover 62%) and wind potential of just 1%, a materially weaker renewable contribution than today's overnight wind-driven negative pricing. Afternoon prices are forecast to ease to $65-88/MWh through 13:00-18:00 as the ramp moderates, but the entire tomorrow curve sits well above today's equivalent intervals, signalling traders should expect the negative-price windows seen overnight to be absent, replaced by a firmer $65+/MWh floor into tomorrow's peak periods.
On demand-side factors, no load-shedding or demand-response notices are active for VIC1 today. The Yallourn-Rowville 220kV contingency reclassification (lightning-related) was cancelled at 19:04 AEST, removing a transmission constraint that had been active on the network since 13:01. Carbon intensity has risen to 0.7985 tCO2/MWh (34.55% renewable) at the current interval, up from lows near 0.477 tCO2/MWh (60.9% renewable) around midday — consistent with the coal/battery-led evening ramp displacing wind and solar in the generation mix.