Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 7 September 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $81.06/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing sharply to 6,551 MW — up from a 3,600 MW overnight trough just three hours earlier. This morning ramp is textbook: demand rose roughly 2,900 MW between 04:00 and 07:00 AEST, and price responded in kind, spiking to an intraday high of $150.72/MWh at 18:00 UTC (approximately 06:00 AEST local settlement) as generators moved up the bid stack to meet the load pickup. The price-demand relationship is tight through this window, with sub-$20/MWh prints coinciding with demand under 4,500 MW overnight, and $100-150/MWh prints tracking the 7,000-7,300 MW range mid-morning.

AEMO issued a Forecast LOR1 notice for today, flagging a capacity reserve shortfall between 07:00 and 07:30 AEST — forecast requirement of 1,155 MW against a minimum available reserve of 1,025 MW. This notice was subsequently cancelled at 20:10 AEST last night, indicating the tight reserve margin resolved ahead of today's peak, but it underscores that today's morning ramp is occurring against a thinner-than-usual reserve buffer. Generation mix at the last interval shows brown coal supplying 3,565 MW and gas OCGT contributing 767 MW, with batteries at 945 MW helping cover the ramp — wind sits low at 214 MW given today's near-calm conditions (4.9 km/h wind speed, 0.2% wind potential).

AEMO's forecast trajectory for today points to a second price peak building through the morning: forecast RRP climbs from $73.68/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $111.44/MWh by 08:30 AEST and $117.58/MWh by 10:30 AEST, consistent with continued demand growth through the business-hours ramp. This aligns with yesterday's comparable pattern, where demand peaked near 7,360 MW around 08:40 AEST local trading, pushing prices above $150/MWh. Cold overnight temperatures (6.1°C, heating demand index 11.9) and weak solar potential today (20.4% average) suggest limited rooftop PV offset during the midday period, meaning the demand curve may hold firmer through the day than typical spring conditions, keeping upward pressure on prices through the morning peak before an anticipated afternoon easing as forecast prices fall toward $10/MWh by early afternoon AEST equivalent.

Renewable penetration at the last interval sits at 21.6%, with carbon intensity at 0.877 tCO2/MWh — both reflect the low-wind, pre-dawn solar ramp conditions coinciding with the current demand upswing. Traders should watch the 07:00-08:30 AEST window closely given the LOR1 history and forecast price trajectory pointing toward triple-digit prints during this demand ramp.