Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $13/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,711 MW, still climbing out of the overnight trough. This follows an extraordinary price collapse through yesterday afternoon and evening — prices held at or near $0/MWh (and briefly negative, -$1.08/MWh at 04:50pm local) for a six-hour stretch from roughly 2pm to 9pm as demand fell from 6,900 MW to below 4,500 MW, before wind generation (3,055 MW at last reading) and easing demand combined to push the market into oversupply. Demand has since troughed near 3,300 MW in the early hours and is now rebuilding toward the morning ramp, tracking a similar shape to yesterday's trajectory when demand peaked at 7,191 MW around 7:20am and pushed prices as high as $165.53/MWh.
The demand-price relationship today is showing the same steep sensitivity seen yesterday: every 500-600 MW of demand growth through the morning ramp has historically added $20-40/MWh to spot price in this market, as the generation stack moves from coal and wind baseload into faster-responding but costlier plant. AEMO's forecast curve for today shows this pattern easing later in the morning — forecast RRP for 8:30am AEST sits at $68.98/MWh, then climbs toward $75/MWh through 9:00-10:30am as demand is expected to approach yesterday's 6,800-7,000 MW peak band. From there, forecast prices soften through the afternoon into the $45-51/MWh range as demand eases, mirroring yesterday's midday dip to $59.86-77/MWh territory.
The overnight period ahead (into Wednesday night AEST) carries a materially bearish forecast, with negative pricing expected from 10pm through to 4am — troughing at -$44.84/MWh around 3pm UTC (roughly 1am AEST) — consistent with wind generation strength and low demand. This is reflected in gridIQ's load-shifting windows, which flag four low-risk periods between midnight and 6am tomorrow offering $96-115/MWh savings versus peak for any shiftable load. On the supply side, note AEMO's cancelled LOR1 (lack of reserve) notice for VIC yesterday morning (0700-0730hrs) — reserve margins were tight during that ramp but resolved without intervention, and no VIC-specific reserve or direction notices are currently active for today. Carbon intensity is tracking at 0.589 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 51.7%, reflecting strong wind output overnight; expect intensity to rise through the morning ramp as brown coal and gas contribute more to meet the demand build.