Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 12 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$5.00/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 4,247 MW, continuing an overnight pattern of negative pricing that has persisted since approximately 22:00 AEST last night. Demand troughed around 2,600-2,700 MW between 03:00-04:00 AEST before beginning its morning climb, and the price-demand relationship through this period is stark: every 500 MW of demand growth from the overnight low has correlated with roughly $15-20/MWh of price recovery, moving from sub-negative $8/MWh territory at 2,600 MW to the current -$5/MWh as demand approaches 4,250 MW.
The forecast trajectory points to a sharp price inflexion ahead. AEMO's forward curve shows prices deepening further into negative territory overnight, with troughs of -$60 to -$68/MWh forecast between 01:00-05:00 AEST tonight as demand remains low and wind generation (currently 3,014 MW, over 70% of scheduled generation) continues to dominate the mix. However, the forecast then shows a rapid reversal from 07:00 AEST, with prices climbing from -$5/MWh to $36/MWh by 08:30 and settling into a $60-70/MWh band through the day as demand ramps toward the typical Sunday peak. This mirrors yesterday's pattern, where demand peaked near 5,700 MW around 08:30-09:00 AEST and pushed prices to $88-91/MWh, before easing back through the day as solar output built and afternoon demand softened, ultimately returning to negative pricing by 14:00 AEST.
Today's demand-side setup favours a repeat of this pattern given similar weather: cloud cover sits at 96% currently with minimal solar potential, but the outlook for 13 September shows improving conditions (23.2°C max, 75% average cloud), suggesting moderate rooftop solar contribution by midday that should cap the afternoon price peak below yesterday's $88/MWh high. Grid stress scores at 53.8 and market conditions at 44.5 reflect the volatility inherent in this negative-to-triple-digit price swing pattern. No VIC-specific demand-side notices are active; the current market interventions and directions relate to SA region voltage support and do not directly constrain Victorian demand or pricing today, though the active NSW-VIC negative settlement residue history flags ongoing interconnector flow sensitivity worth monitoring as demand ramps this morning.