Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $89.58/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,087 MW, down from an evening peak of 7,738 MW recorded around 18:45 AEST yesterday when prices spiked to $118.50/MWh. The overnight trough saw demand fall to a low near 5,063 MW around 10:00 AEST yesterday, coinciding with negative pricing (-$5.69/MWh) as low demand met continued wind and battery output. This demand-price relationship is tight and consistent through the dataset: every 500-1,000 MW swing in demand correlates with price moves of $50-90/MWh, confirming VIC1 is operating near the steep part of the supply curve during shoulder periods.
The forecast trajectory points to a stronger price response today than in recent sessions. AEMO's forward curve shows prices climbing sharply from $68/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $139-169/MWh through the 08:00-11:30 AEST window, with $169.27/MWh forecast at 09:30 AEST — well above yesterday's comparable-period prices near $105-118/MWh. This suggests forecast demand growth into the morning peak is running hotter than yesterday's actual trajectory, likely tied to cooler minimum temperatures (8.9°C) and heating demand (8.5 on the index) persisting into the morning ramp. Prices are expected to ease gradually from midday, falling to $94-119/MWh through the afternoon and settling near $79-90/MWh by 16:00-18:00 AEST as demand moderates.
Current generation mix shows brown coal supplying 3,810 MW (62% of dispatched output), with battery storage contributing 763 MW and gas OCGT adding 570 MW to cover the current demand level. Wind is contributing 628 MW against low wind potential (0.7 index) recorded in current weather conditions, reinforcing reliance on thermal and battery dispatch through this period. Renewable penetration sits at 24.83% with carbon intensity at 0.8614 tCO2/MWh, both reflecting overnight low-wind conditions rather than a demand effect.
No VIC-specific demand-side interventions or directions are active in the notices — the SA region has ongoing voltage-related intervention risk and a forecast minimum system load event on 19 September, but this doesn't directly affect VIC1 pricing today. The Rowville-South Morang 500kV line returned to service yesterday afternoon, removing associated transfer constraints ahead of today's peak. Load-shifting windows identified for tonight show strong economics, with prices forecast to fall to $0.01-$10.50/MWh between 23:00 AEST tonight and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, offering a saving of up to $171/MWh versus today's peak for flexible load.