Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 14 September 2026
Victoria spot price sits at $71.02/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing to 5,318 MW and rising sharply — up from 4,343 MW just two hours earlier as the overnight trough clears. This is the classic morning ramp: demand has climbed roughly 975 MW since 04:30 AEST, and price has tracked it tightly, moving from single digits and negative territory overnight to the $50-70/MWh band as brown coal and wind cover the increase.
The demand-price relationship over the past 24 hours shows high sensitivity around the shoulders of the day. Overnight minimum demand bottomed near 4,140 MW between 03:30-05:45 AEST, coinciding with prices at or near $0/MWh (several intervals printed exactly $0.01 or $0.00). As demand builds through the morning ramp toward the evening peak, price responds with $50-97/MWh prints, including a $156.66/MWh spike at 22:15 UTC (08:15 AEST equivalent in the prior cycle) when demand approached 5,710 MW. The pattern confirms VIC's price curve is steep once demand pushes past ~5,500 MW, with the market needing to call on additional flexible capacity.
Today's forecast trajectory points to a demand-driven price climb through the day. AEMO's forward curve shows prices easing to near-zero or negative through the 06:00-16:00 UTC window (overnight into early morning AEST) before firming sharply from 08:00 UTC (18:00 AEST) onward — forecast RRP reaches $65/MWh by 08:30 UTC, climbing to $77-95/MWh through the 09:30-13:30 UTC window (19:30-23:30 AEST), peaking near $95.59/MWh around 13:30 UTC (23:30 AEST). This evening peak reflects typical VIC demand behaviour: solar contribution fades from mid-afternoon (currently only 3.75 MW, reflecting pre-dawn conditions) while heating load persists at 11.9°C with 6.1 heating-demand index, pushing evening demand and price higher in tandem.
No VIC-specific demand-side interventions are active today — the AEMO notices concern SA voltage support directions and a completed NSW transfer limit variation, with no VIC demand constraints in effect. Grid stress score sits at 76.8, reflecting the tight overnight-to-morning transition, while renewable penetration at 38.79% (wind contributing 2,277 MW of VIC's mix) is providing some price relief during the ramp. Traders should watch the 19:30-23:30 AEST window today for the sharpest price response to demand, consistent with the forecast curve's $95/MWh peak.