Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $99.47/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,117 MW and climbing through the evening peak. This follows a textbook demand-price relationship overnight: prices collapsed to negative territory (-$20/MWh) between 00:00 and 06:00 AEST as demand troughed at 3,730-3,900 MW, then snapped positive once demand crossed roughly 5,800 MW around 07:00-07:15 AEST. The price-demand elasticity is stark today — a 200 MW swing in the 5,900-6,100 MW band earlier in the evening was enough to move price by $10-15/MWh, confirming Victoria is now trading near the steep part of its supply curve.
Demand peaked around 7,200 MW near 08:35-08:45 AEST during the morning ramp, coinciding with prices spiking to $60-70/MWh range as brown coal (3,638 MW) and wind (2,003 MW) carried the bulk of load, with the battery fleet (408 MW) smoothing the transition. A second, sharper demand build is now underway into this evening's peak, with the 20:00-20:30 AEST window already printing $85-109/MWh as demand climbed from 5,548 MW to 6,117 MW in just 30 minutes — a rate of demand growth that's outpacing dispatchable ramp capacity.
AEMO's dispatch price forecasts point to a much sharper price escalation ahead: forecast RRP jumps to $119.74/MWh by 08:00 AEST tomorrow, then $135.90/MWh through the 10:00-11:00 AEST block, before easing to $79-96/MWh by mid-afternoon. This trajectory reflects the low wind potential forecast for today (9.6% average) combined with modest solar potential (2.8%) under 83% cloud cover, meaning renewable output will not offset the demand ramp as effectively as it has in prior sessions. Traders should note the active TORRB4 Torrens Island direction in SA (extended to 16:30 AEST today) and the ongoing SA voltage intervention risk, both of which can tighten interconnector flows and add volatility to VIC pricing given the V-S-MNSP1 and Basslink linkages already flagged in recent negative settlement residue notices on the VIC-SA corridor.
Current carbon intensity at 0.7323 tCO2/MWh (39.98% renewable) reflects brown coal's 3,638 MW contribution against thin wind and negligible solar at this hour; expect intensity to ease modestly through midday as wind picks up per the 20.4 km/h current wind speed, before rising again into tonight's low-wind, low-solar evening peak.