Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $99.68/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,190 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Prices have been highly sensitive to the demand trajectory overnight: as demand collapsed from 6,244 MW to a low of 3,338 MW between 19:00 and 12:00 AEST, prices fell in lockstep from the $60s down to negative territory, bottoming near -$10/MWh through the 12:30-13:00 window when minimum overnight demand bit. That negative pricing episode reflects the low-demand, must-run generation dynamic typical of shoulder-season overnight troughs rather than any supply shortfall.
The current price of $99.68/MWh comes off a sharp evening ramp, where demand pushed from 5,700 MW at 19:00 to over 6,180 MW by 06:30, dragging price from the mid-$80s to peaks above $108/MWh at 06:20. This demand-price elasticity is steep in this range — every ~50 MW of demand growth through the ramp has correlated with $10-20/MWh price steps, indicating the market is moving up the supply stack quickly as gas peaking (GAS_OCGT at 97 MW) and battery discharge (286 MW) get called on to firm the black coal base (5,189 MW) and modest wind (413 MW) and solar (212 MW) contribution at this hour.
AEMO's forward price curve points to a much sharper price escalation ahead today: forecasts show RRP climbing to $130.75/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking near $139.50/MWh in the 10:00-10:30 window, before easing back through the afternoon to the $70-95/MWh band by mid-afternoon and evening. This suggests today's demand peak is expected mid-morning rather than the traditional afternoon/evening peak, likely reflecting cooler minimum temperatures (14.2°C) and moderate heating demand this morning ahead of a milder max of 23.6°C. Renewable penetration is currently low at 17.7% with carbon intensity at 0.72 tCO2/MWh, so the bulk of today's peak-price response will be met by dispatchable thermal and battery capacity rather than variable renewables, reinforcing the demand-driven price sensitivity through the morning block.
No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active today; market intervention and constraint activity in the overnight notices log relates to SA voltage support and TAS network contingencies, with no QLD directions or non-conformances currently in force. Traders should watch the 08:00-10:30 AEST window closely — that's where forecast price risk is concentrated given the demand ramp, and any unplanned generator unavailability in that band would amplify upside price risk beyond the $139.50/MWh forecast peak.