Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 14 September 2026

Queensland demand sits at 6,220 MW as of 20:30 AEST, with spot price at $78.54/MWh — tracking the evening secondary peak as the market moves through the post-sunset ramp. Demand has climbed from an overnight trough of 3,776 MW around 03:25 AEST to a daytime high of 7,413 MW at 08:20 AEST, and price has responded closely to this trajectory: overnight demand below 4,000 MW pushed prices negative (as low as -$8.51/MWh at 05:10 AEST), while the steep morning ramp from 6,000 MW to 7,400 MW between 06:00 and 08:20 AEST drove prices from negative territory to a peak of $87.93/MWh at 19:30 AEST and $85.81/MWh at 20:15 AEST. The price-demand relationship today shows clear inflection points near 6,500 MW, above which the market moves firmly into the $60-90/MWh band.

The demand curve has followed a typical winter/spring shoulder-season pattern: a steep morning ramp (peak 7,413 MW at 08:20 AEST) coinciding with black coal generation holding around 5,100 MW and wind contributing 865 MW, followed by a midday easing as demand fell to a low-6,000s MW range through early afternoon (5,465-6,000 MW between 12:00 and 16:00 AEST) as solar generation offset grid demand. Demand is now rebuilding into the evening peak, consistent with the current 6,220 MW reading and elevated price. AEMO's forecast points to a stronger price response tomorrow, with forecast RRP climbing to $88-96/MWh through the 08:00-13:00 AEST window on 15 September, suggesting the demand-price relationship will tighten further as morning ramp conditions repeat.

Overnight and early morning periods remain the key low-price opportunity today, with forecast prices dropping to -$12.60/MWh between 03:00 and 05:00 AEST on 15 September — a $108.90/MWh spread versus the peak pricing seen this evening. This aligns with identified load-shifting windows recommending flexible load be shifted into the 00:30-06:00 AEST band. No demand-side market notices specific to QLD1 are currently active; the AEMO interventions and directions logged overnight relate to SA voltage control issues and do not affect Queensland demand or pricing conditions today. Grid stress score sits at 76.8, reflecting the tight range between overnight troughs and daytime peaks rather than any supply adequacy concern.