Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 11 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $84.54/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,609 MW — down from the overnight evening peak of 7,235 MW recorded around 18:40 AEST yesterday, when prices ran as high as $112.69/MWh. The intervening trough saw demand fall to a low of 4,663 MW near 10:55 AEST overnight, coinciding with prices near zero and briefly touching $0/MWh and even negative territory in the forecast set. This overnight demand-price relationship is textbook: every 500-1,000 MW swing in demand through the low-demand window correlated with price movements of $50-100/MWh, confirming QLD remains highly demand-sensitive at current dispatch levels.
The generation mix at 20:25 AEST shows black coal supplying 4,834 MW (the dominant source), wind contributing 1,166 MW, battery output at 257 MW, gas OCGT at 101 MW, hydro at 28 MW and solar at 62 MW — reflecting the overnight period with no solar contribution. Renewable penetration sits at 23.47%, with carbon intensity at 0.6699 tCO2/MWh, both near the lower end of today's range as wind generation has eased off from earlier peaks near 43-50% renewable share overnight.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a demand-driven price climb through the morning: forecast RRP rises from $59.96/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $87.11/MWh by 08:00 AEST, holding in the $84-90/MWh band through late morning and midday as demand builds toward typical Saturday peak levels. Prices are expected to ease into the afternoon, dropping to the $69-72/MWh range from 14:00 to 18:00 AEST as demand tapers, consistent with the weekend load shape and improving solar output (average solar potential 18.4% today, per weather outlook). Overnight tonight, forecast prices turn negative from 21:30 AEST through to 05:00 AEST tomorrow, troughing near -$6.54/MWh at 02:00 AEST — a function of low weekend demand meeting minimum thermal generation levels and wind contribution.
No demand-side market notices affect QLD directly today; active notices concern SA voltage support directions and NSW-VIC settlement residue constraints, which do not materially influence QLD demand or pricing. The QLD non-conformance notice for unit MPP_1 (-18 MW, cleared by 13:10 AEST yesterday) has no bearing on current supply. Grid stress score reads 80.1, reflecting the wide demand swing over the past 24 hours, while price stability sits low at 37.7 — traders should expect continued volatility around this evening's peak, targeting the 17:00-19:00 AEST window where demand typically re-approaches 7,000 MW.