Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $78.52/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,298 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This follows a textbook overnight-to-morning trajectory: demand bottomed near 4,000 MW around 04:00-04:30 AEST with prices pinned in the $6-25/MWh range, then rose sharply from 05:00 AEST as the morning ramp took hold. Demand hit 7,000 MW by 07:00 AEST and peaked at 7,549 MW around 08:15 AEST, dragging price to an intraday high of $163.57/MWh at 07:30 AEST before settling into the $88-140/MWh band through the morning peak window (07:00-09:00 AEST).
The demand-price relationship is highly non-linear above 6,500 MW. Between 4,000 MW and 6,000 MW overnight, price moves were muted — a 500 MW swing barely shifted price outside the $6-40/MWh range. Once demand crossed roughly 6,800-7,000 MW after 06:30 AEST, each further 100-200 MW increment pushed price up $10-30/MWh as higher-cost peaking plant and gas OCGT (99 MW currently online) were dispatched alongside the 5,274 MW black coal base. This steep section of the bid stack is the key risk window: any unexpected demand upside during the 07:00-09:00 AEST peak has outsized price impact.
Demand has since eased through the day, falling from the 7,549 MW peak back to 6,298 MW by 20:30 AEST, with price correspondingly softening from the $140s into the high $60s-$80s range through the afternoon and evening. AEMO's forecast points to a continued evening easing, with forecast RRP dropping to $55.53/MWh by 21:00 AEST and falling further into negative territory ($-3/MWh) overnight between 00:00-04:30 AEST as demand troughs again. The forecast trajectory then mirrors today's pattern into tomorrow's morning peak: RRP forecast at $62.73/MWh by 06:00 AEST 9 September, climbing to $93.73/MWh by 08:00 AEST as the next morning ramp begins.
No demand-side notices are active for Queensland today — the AEMO market notices affecting today's operations are concentrated in SA (voltage-related directions to Torrens Island) and don't constrain QLD dispatch. Renewable penetration sits at 24.65% currently (wind 1,207 MW, solar 42 MW reflecting the pre-dawn/low-solar conditions), with carbon intensity at 0.66 tCO2/MWh. Weather outlook shows modest solar potential (22% avg) for today with clear skies (14% cloud cover), supporting typical rooftop PV suppression of grid demand through midday before the evening ramp re-emerges.