Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 5 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh at 20:30 AEST with demand at 5,265 MW, down from an evening peak of 6,975 MW around 07:55-08:25 AEST when prices ran $67-74/MWh. The overnight trough saw demand collapse to 3,137 MW at 01:05 AEST, dragging prices to -$8.51/MWh as minimum system load conditions took hold — a swing of nearly 3,840 MW and $80+/MWh between the daily low and high.
The demand-price relationship today is tight and consistent: every 500 MW step above 5,500 MW pushes prices from the $40-50/MWh band into the $65-75/MWh range, with the steepest climb occurring 05:30-07:00 AEST as demand ramped from 5,194 MW to 6,650 MW in ninety minutes, lifting prices from $43/MWh to $71/MWh. This morning ramp is the sharpest price-sensitive window of the day, consistent with early risers and commercial load-up coinciding with still-thin solar output.
Looking at the forecast trajectory, AEMO's price curve points to a much sharper move overnight into Monday. Prices are forecast to fall further into negative territory through the 21:00-04:30 AEST window (down to -$16.42/MWh around 04:30 AEST) before surging to $99.20/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking near $101.10/MWh at 11:00 AEST Monday — a forecast swing of over $117/MWh in six hours. This aligns with typical Monday demand build patterns and tighter operating margins as solar ramps against rising commercial and industrial load; the five identified low-price load-shifting windows tonight (22:00-03:00 AEST, all averaging -$5 to -$11/MWh) offer up to $112/MWh in savings versus tomorrow's peak.
No demand-side notices directly affect Queensland today — active notices concern SA voltage intervention risk, NSW/VIC contingency reclassifications, and a completed NSW line outage. Grid stress score sits at 58.9 and renewable penetration at 56.3, though QLD's own renewable share in the generation mix is far lower at 11.89% currently, with black coal supplying 4,869 MW (92% of local generation) against wind at 580 MW and negligible solar post-sunset. Carbon intensity has risen to 0.7713 tCO2/MWh as the evening peak drew more thermal generation, tracking the typical late-afternoon/evening pattern of declining solar and rising coal-fired output as demand climbs toward the 19:00-20:30 AEST secondary peak.