Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 4 September 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $55.26/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand at 5,427 MW — well down from the 7,277 MW peak recorded around 18:00 AEST yesterday, which pushed prices to $82.19/MWh. The overnight trough saw demand bottom out near 3,822 MW around 10:45 AEST, coinciding with prices falling into negative territory (down to -$8/MWh) between roughly 12:30 and 15:00 AEST as underlying load thinned out against inflexible generation.

The demand-price relationship today is tracking a familiar pattern: every 500-1,000 MW swing in load corresponds to a $15-25/MWh price move once demand climbs above the 5,500 MW mark. This morning's ramp from the overnight low into the 06:00-08:30 AEST period saw demand jump from ~5,650 MW to over 7,270 MW, dragging price from $0/MWh up to a session high of $82.46/MWh by 13:40 AEST. Above 7,000 MW, price sensitivity steepens noticeably as black coal (currently 4,707 MW) and gas peaking plant (OCGT at 97 MW) are increasingly called on to firm supply, with wind contributing 603 MW and hydro just 28 MW at the 20:00 AEST snapshot.

AEMO's forward curve points to a softer overnight trough tonight, with forecast prices falling to -$18.36/MWh around 05:00 AEST tomorrow before the morning ramp reasserts itself — forecast RRP climbs to $72.50/MWh by 07:30 AEST and holds in the high-$70s through to midday, consistent with the demand-driven pattern seen today. No load-shedding, non-conformance events, or demand-side constraints specific to Queensland appear in today's notices; the active market interventions and contingency reclassifications are concentrated in SA, VIC and TAS, with no direct bearing on QLD supply-demand balance. Renewable penetration in QLD sits at just 11.65% currently, with carbon intensity elevated at 0.7734 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the heavy coal skew during this low-wind, fully overcast period (cloud cover 100%, wind speed 7 km/h).