Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 1 September 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,449 MW as at 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of roughly 4,200 MW recorded between 10:00-11:00 last night. Spot price is tracking at $79.73/MWh, consistent with the region's tight demand-price coupling: every ~300-400 MW of demand growth through the morning ramp has moved price by $20-30/MWh, with the market climbing from $23/MWh at 5,874 MW to $84.50/MWh once demand cleared 7,400 MW mid-morning. This elasticity reflects the marginal generator stack — once black coal (currently 5,454 MW) and battery output (664 MW) are fully committed, price responds quickly to incremental load.
The demand trajectory today follows a typical shoulder-season shape: overnight minimum near 4,200 MW (00:00-05:00 AEST) with prices flat to negative (as low as -$9.60/MWh forecast for 04:00-04:30 tomorrow), a sharp morning ramp pushing demand to a peak plateau around 7,300-7,480 MW between 08:00 and 10:30 AEST, then a gradual afternoon decline back toward 5,400-5,600 MW by mid-afternoon before a modest evening uptick. AEMO's forward price curve confirms this pattern will repeat: forecast prices spike to $109.75/MWh at 08:00 AEST tomorrow and $107.73/MWh at 10:30 AEST, aligning with the anticipated demand peak, before easing to $62-72/MWh through the afternoon and evening as demand eases.
The overnight demand trough is where price sensitivity flips — negative pricing dominates from 00:00 to 05:30 AEST as demand falls below ~4,700 MW, with forecast prices as low as -$9.60/MWh. This is the basis for today's identified 1-hour load-shifting windows (00:00-05:00 AEST), each offering $117-119/MWh in savings versus peak pricing, relevant for any dispatchable load or battery charging strategy. No demand-side constraint notices are current for QLD1 specifically; the active market notices concern SA voltage intervention risk and NSW/VIC interconnector constraints, which do not directly affect Queensland's demand-price relationship today. Carbon intensity is currently elevated at 0.70 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 19.9%, reflecting overcast, low-wind conditions (96% cloud cover, 3.3 km/h wind) that will keep solar and wind contribution subdued through the morning peak, reinforcing coal and gas as the marginal price-setters during today's high-demand window.