Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 29 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $63.73/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,560 MW, tracking a classic overnight-trough-to-morning-ramp pattern. Demand bottomed near 3,850-3,900 MW between 11:00pm and 2:00am AEST, when prices fell into negative territory (down to -$7.81/MWh) as minimum demand conditions took hold across the interconnected system. From that trough, demand has climbed roughly 1,700 MW as the morning ramp progresses, pushing prices from negative/near-zero territory through the $60-80/MWh band by mid-morning.
The demand-price relationship today is showing high sensitivity above the 6,000 MW mark. Once demand crossed 6,000 MW around 06:35 AEST, prices jumped from the $40-50/MWh range to consistently above $70/MWh, peaking at $102.01/MWh briefly during Friday's equivalent ramp and holding in the high-$70s to low-$80s through the current period. This morning's build has been steadier, with prices oscillating $60-83/MWh as demand pushed toward 6,900-7,000 MW around 08:00-09:00 AEST, the highest levels seen in the past 24 hours. Demand has since eased back to the 5,300-5,600 MW band through the afternoon and evening, correspondingly pulling prices back into the $55-70/MWh range.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for the remainder of today points to a firming price outlook overnight into tomorrow's morning peak. Forecast prices are negative from 22:00 AEST tonight through to around 06:00 AEST tomorrow (as low as -$8.71/MWh at 04:30 AEST), consistent with minimum demand conditions similar to last night's pattern. However, the forecast then shows a sharp escalation from 06:30 AEST tomorrow, climbing to $54.73/MWh by 07:00, then jumping to $81-99/MWh through 08:00-10:00 AEST as demand ramps into the morning peak — the highest forecast prices of the outlook window, before easing to the $70-90/MWh band through midday and settling around $71-78/MWh into the evening.
On the supply side, black coal is carrying 5,059 MW (91% of scheduled generation) with wind contributing 1,591 MW, while renewable penetration sits at 26.4% and carbon intensity at 0.644 tCO2/MWh — both reflecting the low solar output typical of the current 20:30 AEST interval. No QLD-specific demand-side directions or constraints are active; today's notices are dominated by SA voltage-support interventions and network outage returns-to-service in NSW, none of which are currently affecting Queensland pricing or demand.