Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,499 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $103.51/MWh — tracking through the morning demand ramp that has pushed prices from sub-$30/MWh overnight lows to a peak above $178/MWh at 17:15 AEST yesterday's equivalent period. The price-demand relationship is tight and non-linear in this dataset: as demand climbed from 4,400 MW overnight to 7,600 MW during yesterday's morning peak (08:00-09:00 AEST), prices moved from $25-40/MWh to a range of $120-175/MWh, with intraday spikes to $178.81/MWh at 7,157 MW. Every 1,000 MW of demand growth above the 6,500 MW mark appears to compress the reserve margin enough to trigger step-changes in marginal generation cost, consistent with gas peaking plant setting price at the margin during ramp periods.
The forecast trajectory for today shows a classic double-peak shape. Prices are forecast to fall to $18-25/MWh through the 11:00-14:00 AEST overnight trough as demand bottoms out, before climbing through the morning ramp to a forecast $105/MWh by 19:00 AEST and holding in the $100-108/MWh band from 19:00 through 22:00 AEST as the morning peak builds — mirroring yesterday's pattern where demand exceeded 7,500 MW and prices held above $100/MWh for a sustained four-hour window. A secondary afternoon plateau is forecast around $84.50/MWh from 01:00-02:30 AEST (target times), before a second ramp into the evening peak with prices forecast near $92/MWh by 03:00 AEST.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 5,962 MW of the 6,817 MW total generation (net of demand plus losses), with wind at 235 MW, battery discharge at 294 MW, and hydro at 230 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7787 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 11.15%, reflecting the low-wind (6.8 km/h), high-cloud (95%) conditions currently in place — solar potential is effectively zero at this hour. No QLD-specific demand-side notices are active; the AEMO notices in the system relate to NSW non-conformance and VIC/TAS/SA contingency reclassifications, none of which constrain Queensland supply today. Traders should watch the 08:00-09:00 AEST window most closely — this is where yesterday's demand peaked near 7,650 MW and prices spiked hardest, and today's morning ramp is tracking a similar demand curve into that window.