Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 23 August 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,419 MW at 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $66.97/MWh — down from the evening peak of $102.80/MWh recorded around 06:35 AEST yesterday evening but tracking a firm upward trajectory through this morning's ramp. Demand has climbed sharply from an overnight trough of 3,314 MW (around 10:50 AEST) to current levels, and price has responded accordingly: the overnight low of -$10.32/MWh coincided directly with sub-3,700 MW demand troughs, while today's morning ramp from 4,300 MW to 7,300 MW between 05:30 and 08:00 AEST pushed prices from -$6/MWh to a peak of $83.41/MWh. This demand-price relationship is consistent and tight — every 500-1,000 MW increase in load through the morning ramp added roughly $15-25/MWh to spot price.
Demand peaked at approximately 7,360 MW around 08:20 AEST and has been easing gradually since, currently near 6,400-6,900 MW through the middle of the day as rooftop and grid solar contribution builds. Price has moderated in step, sitting in the $54-77/MWh band through the midday period. AEMO's dispatch forecast points to a second, sharper demand-driven price spike this evening: forecast RRP climbs from $54.73/MWh at 22:00 AEST to $84.50/MWh by 07:30 AEST tomorrow, with a pronounced peak of $102.44/MWh forecast for the 09:30 AEST period tomorrow — suggesting the evening and following morning ramps will again be the key price-setting events. Overnight, forecast prices fall to near-zero or negative ($-1.89/MWh trough near 04:00 AEST tomorrow) as demand drops below 3,700 MW, consistent with today's pattern.
No specific QLD demand-side interventions or directions are on the notice board today — the active market intervention and non-conformance notices are concentrated in SA and VIC (voltage support directions at Torrens Island and Barker Inlet, and a non-conforming solar farm unit in VIC). This means QLD's price action today is being driven purely by underlying demand and the generation stack, not by any directed load-shedding or emergency reserve activation. Current generation mix at 19:55 AEST shows black coal supplying 4,728 MW and wind 1,627 MW against total demand near 6,400 MW, with renewable penetration at 27.4% and carbon intensity at 0.6355 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with the low-solar, moderate-wind conditions reflected in today's weather outlook (average solar potential of just 16.6% and wind potential of 0.7%).
Traders should watch the 18:00-20:00 AEST window this evening for the next demand-driven price test, and the 07:00-09:30 AEST window tomorrow morning, where AEMO's forecast implies the sharpest price response to the daily demand ramp.