Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 20 August 2026

Queensland demand sits at 6,911 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 4,500 MW at 13:00-14:00 AEST, with spot price at $72.50/MWh tracking the morning demand ramp. The overnight period saw prices collapse to near-zero and negative territory (down to -$4.97/MWh around 04:00-04:30 AEST) as demand bottomed out below 4,900 MW, confirming the region's typical pattern of oversupply relative to overnight load. As demand climbed through the 06:00-08:00 AEST ramp, from 6,167 MW to over 7,600 MW, prices responded in step, jumping from the low $40s/MWh to the low-to-mid $80s/MWh, with a peak of $91.02/MWh at 07:55 AEST.

Demand is now in its morning build and forecast data points to a strong price response through the middle of the day. The forecast curve shows prices climbing steadily to $84.73/MWh by 08:00 AEST, $87.74/MWh by 08:30-09:00 AEST, and peaking near $93.15/MWh around 09:30 AEST, consistent with historical price-demand elasticity seen in yesterday's trading, where each ~500 MW step in demand corresponded to roughly $15-20/MWh of price movement. Demand in the current 30-minute window has already jumped from 6,807 MW to 6,911 MW, a gain of over 100 MW, reinforcing the upward pressure evident in the forecast.

The afternoon outlook shows prices easing from the morning peak, with forecasts settling near $83-85/MWh through midday before declining to the $55-63/MWh band from 14:00 AEST onward as demand tapers off with milder afternoon temperatures (forecast max 21.1°C today, minimal cooling load). Current carbon intensity sits at 0.676 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 22.8%, reflecting the low wind and solar contribution overnight (solar generation is negligible at this hour, wind at 1,196 MW) with black coal covering the bulk of the ramp at 5,458 MW. No demand-side market notices affecting QLD specifically are in the active list today; the relevant network items are a completed transmission outage restoration (Palmwoods-South Pine 275kV line, back in service since 17 August) and general system interconnector adjustments in NSW and SA that don't directly constrain QLD supply. Traders should watch the 08:00-10:00 AEST window for the session price peak given the forecast trajectory, with a secondary but lower peak likely in the evening ramp based on yesterday's pattern of prices climbing back to the high $70s by 20:00 AEST as demand rebuilds toward 6,900+ MW.