Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 19 August 2026

Queensland demand sits at 6,848 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of roughly 4,100-4,500 MW recorded between 02:00 and 04:00 AEST, when spot prices sat at or below zero for an extended stretch (as low as -$6.11/MWh at 05:05 AEST). The overnight period shows the region's typical low-demand, negative-price pattern, driven by minimal heating and cooling load (current temperature 12.1°C, heating demand only 5.9) combined with wind and rooftop solar output that pushed renewable penetration above 50% for stretches around midnight. That relationship — demand below ~4,600 MW correlating with sub-zero pricing — is a clear feature of QLD's overnight profile and a useful marker for battery charging strategies.

Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced through the morning ramp. As demand climbed from 5,180 MW at 05:30 AEST to over 7,600 MW by 08:00 AEST, prices moved from near-zero to a range of $68-89/MWh, with a spike to $88.88/MWh at 07:30 AEST coinciding with demand crossing 7,300 MW. This morning ramp is the steepest price-demand gradient of the day: each ~500 MW of demand growth through the 06:00-08:00 window added roughly $15-20/MWh to spot prices, reflecting the marginal generator stack (currently 5,285 MW black coal, 1,421 MW wind, 702 MW battery discharge, and just 82 MW gas OCGT) tightening as thermal and peaking capacity is called on.

Demand peaked intraday near 7,731 MW at 08:30 AEST before easing back through the afternoon to the low 5,600-5,900 MW band by mid-afternoon, tracking prices down to the $43-60/MWh range. Current price of $76.41/MWh at 20:30 AEST reflects the evening ramp already underway, with demand climbing again from 6,299 MW at 19:40 AEST toward tonight's peak. AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a second, sharper price escalation tomorrow morning: forecast RRP rises from $39.75/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $84.73/MWh by 08:30 AEST and holds in the $84-85/MWh band through midday (09:00-12:00 AEST), suggesting sustained high demand pressure into tomorrow's business hours before easing to $53-61/MWh by early afternoon and further down to the $40-42/MWh range by mid-afternoon as milder temperatures (forecast max 20.2°C) limit both heating and cooling load. No demand-side notices (load shedding, directions, or reliability declarations) are currently active for QLD1 — the SA voltage direction and VIC1 contingency reclassification are unrelated to Queensland's current supply-demand balance.