Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 22 August 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $111.65/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,896 MW — down from the day's peak of 7,256 MW recorded at 08:05 AEST. That demand-price relationship has been the defining feature of today's trading: as load climbed from an overnight low of 4,986 MW (23:55 AEST) toward the morning peak above 7,200 MW, prices tracked closely, rising from sub-$50/MWh territory into the $110-133/MWh band through the 08:00-13:00 window. The tightest correlation shows around 10:15 AEST, where a brief demand plateau near 6,800 MW still produced a $132.98/MWh spike, indicating the region was operating near the margin of dispatchable capacity during that period.

Demand has been easing steadily since the early afternoon peak, falling from 6,977 MW at 11:00 AEST to the current 5,896 MW, and prices have softened in step — though not linearly. The evening period (17:00-20:00 AEST) shows demand rebuilding into the 5,550-5,900 MW range as solar output fades, and prices have firmed back into the $90-115/MWh band accordingly, consistent with typical evening ramp dynamics. Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 5,587 MW (the dominant baseload contributor), wind at 649 MW, gas peaking plant (OCGT) at 100 MW, and battery storage contributing 17 MW — a mix that explains the price sensitivity, since incremental demand above baseload levels is being met by higher-cost peaking generation.

The forecast trajectory points to a sharp demand and price collapse overnight: AEMO's outlook has prices falling to $24.99/MWh by 22:00 AEST, turning negative from 22:30 AEST through to around 05:00 AEST tomorrow (troughing near -$7.30/MWh at 03:30 AEST), consistent with low overnight demand and continued wind generation. Prices are forecast to recover into the $60-90/MWh range through tomorrow's morning ramp (07:00-09:00 AEST) before easing again through the day as milder temperatures (max 21.4°C forecast, minimal cooling load) limit demand growth. No demand-side interventions or directions have been issued for QLD today — the active AEMO notices relate to SA voltage support and TAS network contingencies, with no load-shedding or demand-response actions flagged for Queensland.