Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 28 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $98.68/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,820 MW — up sharply from the overnight trough but still well below yesterday's evening peak of 7,316 MW recorded at 18:25 AEST. The current price reflects the early-morning demand ramp: demand climbed from a low of roughly 3,860 MW around 11:05 AEST overnight to over 6,900 MW by 17:00 AEST as the morning ramp took hold, dragging price up from negative territory to above $100/MWh in the space of a few hours.
The price-demand relationship today is pronounced. Overnight demand below 4,200 MW saw prices collapse to between -$7.36/MWh and $3.52/MWh for an extended stretch from roughly 13:20 to 06:00 AEST, with wind (850 MW) and battery output (198 MW) covering a larger share of a shrunken load. As demand rebuilt through the morning ramp, price responded almost linearly — each 500 MW step upward in demand from 4,700 MW to 7,300 MW corresponded with price gains of $20-30/MWh, peaking near $119/MWh at 07:20 AEST when demand approached 6,940 MW. Black coal generation (5,461 MW) is carrying the bulk of current supply, with gas OCGT (96 MW) and hydro (30 MW) filling smaller balancing roles.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a second demand peak later this morning, with forecast prices climbing to $99.89/MWh around 08:30-09:30 AEST before easing through the afternoon as demand tapers — forecast price drops to $73-79/MWh by 14:00-16:00 AEST and further to $62-64/MWh by early evening. This aligns with the weekend demand pattern, where Saturday load typically runs 10-15% below weekday peaks. Expect a moderate afternoon dip in both demand and price, followed by a modest evening uptick as forecast prices firm back to $63.73/MWh by 18:00 AEST target time.
No load-shedding or demand-side notices are active for Queensland today. The one QLD1-specific notice — a non-conformance declaration for GUSF1 (37 MW, 14:50-15:15 AEST yesterday) — has no bearing on today's demand-side risk. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.7318 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 16.46%, consistent with the coal-heavy generation mix supporting this morning's demand ramp; expect intensity to ease slightly as solar ramps up through midday under today's forecast cloud cover of 34%.