Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 6 September 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,061 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $80.93/MWh, up sharply from the sub-$0 overnight trough. Demand has climbed roughly 2,700 MW off the 02:00-04:00 trading low of around 3,250-3,600 MW, when negative pricing persisted for nearly four hours straight (troughing at -$35/MWh around 03:15-03:20). That overnight negative pricing episode reflects minimal demand against continued wind output (currently 937 MW) and battery discharge, not a supply shortfall.
The price-demand relationship through the past 24 hours is unambiguous: every 1,000 MW step up in demand has moved price by roughly $20-40/MWh once demand clears 5,500 MW. Yesterday's afternoon peak near 7,365 MW (08:00 AEST print) pushed price to $99.69/MWh, and the pattern is repeating this morning — demand has risen from 5,997 MW at 05:50 to 6,061 MW at 06:30 while price jumped from $0 to over $80/MWh in the same window. Black coal is currently supplying 5,107 MW of the 6,617 MW total generation mix, with gas OCGT (99 MW) and batteries (453 MW) providing peaking support as demand ramps into the morning block.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firmer session ahead: forecast RRP climbs to $95-99/MWh by 07:30-08:00 AEST, then peaks at $114-116/MWh around 09:00-09:30, before easing back to the $70-100/MWh band through midday and into the $72-85/MWh range for the afternoon. This morning peak forecast of $114-116/MWh is consistent with typical Monday commercial and industrial ramp-up, compounded by renewable_pct sitting at just 21.8% currently — well below the 40%+ renewable contribution seen overnight — meaning thermal and gas plant are setting a higher marginal price as solar has not yet ramped materially (solar generation is only 33 MW at present, reflecting the early hour).
No demand-side constraints or directions affect Queensland today — the active market notices concern SA voltage management, VIC contingency reclassifications, and NSW network outages, none of which bind QLD dispatch. Weather supports a moderate demand day: max temperature 24.5°C forecast, average solar potential 22.4% (the best of the outlook week), suggesting midday price relief as rooftop and grid-scale solar ramps into the 100.5%-forecast morning peak, consistent with the modelled pullback to sub-$90/MWh by early afternoon.