Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 12 September 2026
Queensland demand sits at 5,267 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $38.04/MWh, down from a $65-80/MWh band that persisted through most of yesterday evening's peak. The data shows clear price sensitivity to demand: overnight troughs below 3,500 MW (around 10:45-11:30 AEST) coincided with prices at or below zero, while this morning's ramp from 4,300 MW to a peak above 6,900 MW between 07:30-09:00 AEST drove prices up to $84/MWh. That roughly 2,600 MW swing produced an $80+/MWh price range, confirming Queensland's steep short-run supply curve once black coal and gas peaking plant are needed to cover the ramp.
Today's demand trajectory points to a typical Sunday shape: the AEMO forecast has prices deeply negative from 07:00-15:00 AEST (as low as -$18.21/MWh around 13:00), consistent with low weekend industrial and commercial load combined with solar generation building through the day. Current solar output is modest at 173 MW given early morning conditions, but the daily outlook shows solar potential firming through the afternoon (average 18.4% today), which should suppress midday prices further. Forecast prices then recover into positive territory from 16:30 AEST ($38.84/MWh) and climb steadily through the evening ramp, reaching $76-80/MWh by 18:00-19:00 AEST as demand rebuilds toward the evening peak — mirroring yesterday's pattern where demand climbed from 5,300 MW to over 6,150 MW between 16:30 and 18:45 AEST.
The generation mix at the current interval shows black coal carrying 4,341 MW (the dominant baseload source), wind contributing a strong 1,381 MW, with gas OCGT at just 100 MW indicating peaking plant is largely offline at this demand level. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6478 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 25.95%, tracking the diurnal pattern in the carbon history where renewable share peaked near 53% overnight (low demand, high wind contribution) and troughs in the 26-30% range during high-demand afternoon periods when coal generation scales up.
No Queensland-specific demand-side interventions appear in today's market notices — the active AEMO directions and minimum system load advisories are all concentrated in the SA region, with no QLD constraints affecting today's supply-demand balance. Traders should note the load-shifting windows identified for early tomorrow morning (00:00-05:00 AEST 13 September) offer savings of $87-95/MWh versus peak pricing, reinforcing that Queensland's overnight low-demand troughs remain the cheapest window for flexible load, while the 16:00-19:00 AEST ramp remains the key price risk period for today's session.