NEM Overview: Saturday 12 September 2026

Spot prices show a sharp east-west split this morning. NSW1 sits at $42.45/MWh and QLD1 at $38.04/MWh, while VIC1 (-$5.00), SA1 (-$4.53) and TAS1 (-$4.62) are all in negative territory — a spread of roughly $47/MWh between NSW and the three southern regions. WA1, on its own separate settlement window, is running much higher at $109.88/MWh. The negative pricing across VIC, SA and TAS points to strong wind output outstripping demand: SA1 wind generation is at 1,665 MW against total demand of just 1,179 MW, and VIC1 wind is at 3,014 MW against 4,247 MW demand, pushing both regions into oversupply. Total demand is soft across the board given the Sunday load profile, with NSW1 at 6,548 MW and QLD1 at 5,267 MW the highest of the five NEM regions.

Renewable penetration is uneven by region. SA1 is running at 93.5% renewable with a carbon intensity of just 0.038 tCO2/MWh — near-zero-emissions generation this morning. TAS1 follows at 81.8% renewable (0.119 tCO2/MWh) on strong hydro (344 MW) and wind (218 MW). VIC1 sits at 58.6% renewable with wind contributing 3,014 MW against 2,144 MW of brown coal. NSW1 and QLD1 are the outliers, at 15.0% and 26.0% renewable respectively, with black coal dominating both (4,392 MW in NSW1, 4,341 MW in QLD1) and carbon intensity above 0.65 tCO2/MWh in each. The NEM-wide renewable penetration score sits at 53.3%, consistent with the strong southern wind contribution offsetting coal-heavy NSW and QLD.

Interconnector flows reflect the price spread: VIC1-NSW1 is exporting 794 MW north (binding at its export limit), while V-SA is binding at -676 MW as Victoria draws from South Australia's cheap wind surplus. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is also binding, flowing 417 MW from Tasmania to Victoria. These binding constraints, combined with the negative pricing in the south, indicate transmission capacity is being fully utilised to move surplus renewable generation toward NSW demand.

Market notices flag ongoing voltage support requirements in SA1: AEMO has an active direction in place from 05:05 AEST today under clause 4.8.9(a1)(1), with a further foreseeable intervention flagged for 08:30 AEST due to voltage conditions. This follows a pattern of near-daily SA voltage directions over the past week, tied to minimum system load conditions as rooftop solar and wind displace synchronous generation — SA1 hit an actual Minimum System Load (MSL1) event on 12 September. Traders should watch for further AEMO directions in SA1 through the morning, and note the VIC1-SA1 negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_VIC1_SA1) has been active intermittently over recent days, reflecting the persistent southern oversupply.