NEM Overview: Tuesday 8 September 2026

Spot prices show a wide regional spread this morning: NSW1 sits at $89.89/MWh and QLD1 at $78.52/MWh, while SA1 has dipped negative to -$3.61/MWh on strong wind output, and VIC1 and TAS1 sit low at $13.00/MWh and $14.50/MWh respectively. WA1, on its own separate market, trades at $84.15/MWh. The NSW1-VIC1 spread of over $75/MWh reflects the divide between coal-heavy demand centres and the wind-rich south, with the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector flowing 622 MW north near its export limit and binding.

NEM-wide renewable penetration reads 48.5% on the current scoring, with SA1 leading at 95.85% renewable and a carbon intensity of just 0.0203 tCO2/MWh, driven by 1,714 MW of wind generation against total demand of 1,470 MW — explaining the negative pricing there. TAS1 follows at 89.09% renewable (hydro 595 MW, wind 420 MW), while VIC1 sits at 51.7% with brown coal (2,982 MW) and wind (3,055 MW) running near parity. NSW1 and QLD1 trail at 28.03% and 24.65% renewable respectively, with black coal dominant in both — 4,608 MW in NSW1 and 5,274 MW in QLD1. Grid-wide carbon intensity score sits at 64.1, with price stability reading soft at 30.5, consistent with the wide inter-regional price divergence.

SA1 remains under an active AEMO direction: Torrens Island B4 has been ordered to stay synchronised and follow dispatch targets from 0100 to 1600 hrs today to maintain voltage control, following a foreseeable intervention notice issued yesterday afternoon. This keeps a synchronous unit online despite high wind output and negative prices, and traders should watch for any extension or cancellation notice around the 1600 hrs deadline. A non-conformance was also recorded on unit ADPBA1 in SA1 for 6 MW, in effect for several hours yesterday, though this is not expected to materially affect today's dispatch.

Looking at today's outlook, cloud cover is elevated in the south (71% NSW1, 74% VIC1) limiting solar contribution early, while QLD1 skies are clear with solar potential building toward 22 in the outlook — expect QLD1 renewable share to climb through the midday block. Wind potential in SA1 and VIC1 remains moderate (8.7 and 16.7 respectively), so continued negative or low pricing in the south is likely through the morning before demand ramps. NSW1 and QLD1 will stay coal-anchored through the day given thin renewable output at present, keeping the north-south price spread in play into the evening peak.