NEM Overview: Friday 4 September 2026

Spot prices show a sharp east-west split this morning. WA1 sits well above the rest of the NEM at $109.77/MWh, while SA1, VIC1 and TAS1 are all in negative territory (-$4.81, -$5.09 and -$5.38/MWh respectively) on strong wind output. NSW1 and QLD1 sit mid-range at $56.48 and $54.75/MWh. Demand is moderate across the board — NSW1 leads at 6,626 MW, QLD1 at 5,441 MW, VIC1 at 4,547 MW, SA1 at 1,217 MW and TAS1 at 1,005 MW.

Wind generation is dominating the southern states: VIC1 wind output is running at 3,264 MW, SA1 at 1,341 MW and NSW1 at 1,586 MW, pushing SA1 renewable penetration to 94.2% and VIC1 to 54.0% for the period, with grid carbon intensity in SA1 down at 0.0283 tCO2/MWh. TAS1 sits at 81.2% renewable on hydro (379 MW) and wind (163 MW). QLD1 is the outlier, running 11.7% renewable with black coal supplying 4,707 MW of its 5,441 MW demand, leaving carbon intensity there at 0.7734 tCO2/MWh. NSW1 blends 3,680 MW of black coal with wind and a 393 MW battery contribution. NEM-wide renewable penetration is tracking at 54.3% for this interval, with grid stress scored at 61.3 and price stability low at 11.5, reflecting the wide regional spread.

Interconnector flows reflect the wind surplus in the south: VIC1-NSW1 is exporting 902 MW and currently binding at its export limit, while V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 show net imports into SA1 despite its own strong wind output, with V-S-MNSP1 also binding at -86.27 MW. Weather outlooks support continued wind strength in SA1 and VIC1 today (wind potential 28-31%), while NSW1 and QLD1 see stronger solar potential (24.3% and 31% respectively) as cloud cover clears.

Several active notices are worth tracking. AEMO reclassified then cancelled a credible contingency on the Yallourn-Rowville 220 kV lines in VIC1 overnight due to lightning, now reverted to non-credible. A credible contingency reclassification remains in force for the Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island A 275kV lines in SA1 due to severe weather, effective from midnight. The VIC1-NSW1 and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors are both binding at limits, and an unplanned outage on the Keith-Kincraig 132kV line in SA1 is still invoking constraint set S-KHKN. Traders should watch SA1 pricing closely given the compounding effects of high wind output, the weather-related network derating, and constrained import capacity.