NEM Overview: Tuesday 1 September 2026

WA leads NEM pricing this morning at $124.56/MWh, with SA close behind at $101.02/MWh. NSW sits at $85.80/MWh, QLD at $79.73/MWh, VIC at $75.87/MWh, and TAS the cheapest at $69.87/MWh. The 25/MWh spread between VIC and SA reflects thin overnight demand in the south combined with SA's heavier reliance on gas at the margin — SA's mix currently shows 231 MW OCGT and 43 MW CCGT gas against 459 MW wind and negligible battery output, keeping it exposed to price movements when wind eases. NSW demand is running highest across the mainland at 7,502 MW, with QLD at 6,449 MW and VIC at 5,393 MW; SA and TAS are much smaller at 1,371 MW and 1,151 MW respectively.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 52.2% on the platform's aggregate score, though regional splits vary widely. TAS is running on 100% renewables right now, entirely hydro (1,055 MW) and wind (382 MW), with zero carbon intensity. SA follows at 62.6% renewable penetration and a carbon intensity of 0.2335 tCO2/MWh, the lowest of the mainland regions. NSW sits at 30.7% renewable (0.6082 tCO2/MWh), VIC at 29.2% (0.8644 tCO2/MWh, reflecting 4,026 MW of brown coal generation), and QLD lowest at 15.5% renewable with a carbon intensity of 0.7396 tCO2/MWh, driven by 5,087 MW of black coal generation against modest wind (691 MW) and negligible solar overnight. Grid stress reads 68.5 on the platform score, and price stability is low at 15.6, consistent with the wide inter-regional spread and active intervention activity.

The V-SA interconnector is binding this morning at 567.6 MW export from Victoria into SA, right at its export limit, which is worth watching as SA demand picks up through the day. AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention in SA from 1030 hrs today due to voltage conditions — this follows a pattern of repeated SA voltage interventions and directions to AGL SA Generation (Torrens Island, Barker Inlet) over the past fortnight, so a further direction to synchronise synchronous plant in SA this morning is plausible. A VIC constraint set (CA_SYDS_59A889E5) remains invoked to manage power system security on the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnector equations. Traders should also note MarketNet maintenance outages scheduled for 3–4 September and 11 September affecting VPN connectivity, and the FTA Release 2 MSATS change window on 3–4 September that will suspend meter data processing and B2B transactions.

Looking at today's outlook, NSW and VIC face overcast, cool conditions (17.3°C and 12.4°C respectively) with limited solar potential this morning, though NSW's forecast solar potential lifts to 22.1% by afternoon under clearing skies. QLD and SA are similarly cloud-affected with near-zero current wind and solar potential, but QLD's outlook shows stronger solar potential (31.8%) developing later today. With SA's minimum system load risk persisting as a recurring theme through late August, expect continued voltage management action in that region through the trading day.