NEM Overview: Friday 28 August 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a tight $83.77-118.88/MWh band this morning, with SA1 the highest at $118.88/MWh and WA1 (not synchronously connected) the lowest at $83.77/MWh. Within the interconnected NEM, QLD1 is the outlier on the low side at $98.68/MWh against NSW1 ($115.11/MWh), VIC1 ($114.80/MWh) and TAS1 ($103.03/MWh) — a roughly $16-20/MWh spread that reflects QLD1's strong wind output (850.82 MW) and comfortable black coal generation (5461 MW) relative to demand of 5820 MW. NSW1 carries the highest absolute demand at 7582 MW, running black coal at 5468 MW alongside 877 MW of hydro and 462 MW of wind.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 40.3% on the current scoring, but this masks wide regional variation. TAS1 is running at 91.78% renewable with a carbon intensity of just 0.0534 tCO2/MWh, driven by 1032 MW of hydro and 364 MW of wind against only 975 MW of demand. SA1 follows at 46.96% renewable (338.77 MW wind, 113.42 MW battery) with intensity of 0.3058 tCO2/MWh. NSW1, VIC1 and QLD1 all sit in the 16-20% renewable range this morning, with VIC1 the highest-intensity region at 1.0088 tCO2/MWh on 4340 MW of brown coal generation. Overnight temperatures are cool across the board (7-13°C) with heating demand elevated in VIC1 and SA1, and solar potential is currently at zero everywhere ahead of sunrise, with cloud cover heaviest in VIC1 (92%) and TAS1 (80%).

Grid stress scoring reads elevated at 75.9, consistent with a cluster of active AEMO notices. SA1 remains the focus: a Minimum System Load (MSL1) event is forecast for 31 August between 1300-1400 hrs, with minimum demand as low as 168 MW — the third iteration of this forecast after two prior cancellations, so expect further updates. SA1 also saw a foreseeable voltage intervention and a direction to Barker Inlet PS and Torrens Island B3 earlier in the week (23 August), underlining ongoing system strength management in that region as synchronous generation availability tightens. A QLD1 non-conformance was declared against GUSF1 (37 MW, 14:50-15:15 on 28 August) — a minor, already-resolved event.

Interconnector flows show NSW1 exporting 877 MW to QLD1 and 116 MW to VIC1, while VIC1 exports 223 MW to SA1 and 422 MW to TAS1 via Basslink — none of these flows are currently binding against their limits, so no congestion-driven price separation is evident beyond the underlying supply-demand fundamentals. Traders should watch the SA1 MSL1 forecast into early next week and monitor QLD1's wind-driven price discount for arbitrage opportunities against NSW1.