NEM Overview: Monday 24 August 2026

South Australia is printing negative prices at -$1/MWh this morning while VIC1 sits at the top of the range at $100.38/MWh — a spread of over $101/MWh between adjacent regions. WA1 is the highest-priced region at $107.62/MWh, followed by VIC1, NSW1 at $95.20/MWh, TAS1 at $90.60/MWh, and QLD1 the lowest of the eastern states at $84.53/MWh. NEM-wide demand is moderate for a late-August morning, with NSW1 drawing 7,931 MW, QLD1 6,588 MW, VIC1 6,068 MW, SA1 1,516 MW, and TAS1 1,175 MW.

Renewable penetration varies sharply by region. SA1 is running at 97.4% renewables, with 1,620 MW of wind covering almost all local demand and pushing prices negative — this is consistent with SA1's near-zero carbon intensity of 0.0128 tCO2/MWh. TAS1 sits at 91.8% renewable, dominated by 1,370 MW of hydro. NSW1 and QLD1 are more moderate at 31.8% and 24.5% renewable respectively, with black coal still the largest single source in both (5,445 MW in NSW1, 5,462 MW in QLD1). VIC1 is the outlier on carbon intensity at 1.0961 tCO2/MWh and just 7.1% renewable this morning, with brown coal generating 4,307 MW against wind of only 334 MW and zero solar output — cloud cover across VIC1 is sitting at 100% with negligible wind speed, capping renewable output for now. NEM-wide renewable penetration is tracking at 46.6%, and the grid stress score of 76.8 reflects the wide interregional price spread and voltage support requirements in SA1.

Interconnector flows show SA1 exporting into Victoria via V-SA at 139.7 MW (flow of -139.7 MW, at its import limit), consistent with SA1's surplus wind generation. NSW1 is importing from both QLD1 (735 MW flow into NSW1) and VIC1 (355 MW), while Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 394 MW from Tasmania into Victoria. None of the interconnectors are currently binding, though SA1's V-SA link is sitting right at its import limit.

Traders should note SA1 has had a run of AEMO voltage-control directions this week, with Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units directed to synchronise on 22-23 August due to inadequate synchronous generation for voltage support — a recurring theme as SA1 wind output displaces gas-fired synchronous plant. A non-conformance notice was also issued for the Numurkah solar farm (NUMURSF1) in VIC1 on 23 August. TAS1 had two credible contingency reclassifications this week for lightning risk on the Tungatinah-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece lines, both since cancelled. Weather outlook shows heavy cloud cover across NSW1, VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 today, limiting solar contribution NEM-wide, with clearer skies and rising solar potential forecast from 28 August.